From Poverty to Power Green, Oxfam 2008 - weman

FROM POVERTY TO POWERemissions by 80 per cent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels (the level ofreductions required to minimise the risk of catastrophic climatechange). 240Such a wholesale switch to new and existing clean technologieswould require a massive effort on a global scale, overriding intellectualproperty rules and short-term commercial self-interest, and backedby appropriate funding. It also ignores issues such as the rapidly risinguse of air travel, which is becoming increasingly significant as a sourceof greenhouse gases, without any low-carbon alternative in sight. Itmay well be that patterns of consumption have to change as much aspatterns of production. These are huge challenges, but the alternativesare equally unpalatable: cross your fingers and hope for sometechnological magic bullet to emerge, or accept lower global rates ofgrowth in the market economy.In practice, avoiding catastrophic climate change is likely torequire a mix of solutions, including accelerated technology transfer,innovation, and reduced emissions in the big polluter countries. Itremains an open question whether this will include lower growth ratesin some or all countries, or whether a combination of human ingenuityand political leadership will be enough.For the poorest countries, the transition to a low-carbon economymay not be so urgent – after all, with the exception of the giant andrapidly growing economies of China and India, their carbon footprintremains very small. Eventually, however, they will have to find a pathto development that does not rely on massive fossil fuel consumption,either because prices are simply too high or because (in a manneranalogous to the nuclear proliferation treaty) those countries thathave already used huge reserves of carbon to industrialise their owneconomies will deny that option to others. Another key considerationis whether poor countries can afford to be ‘locked out’ of new,low-carbon energy systems that will inevitably become a driver ofcompetitiveness in the future.In effect, poor countries will have to make transitions to carbonefficienteconomies earlier in their development paths than today’sdeveloped countries did, just as they are currently doing in terms oftransitions to literacy, low child mortality rates, and lower birth rates.At the very least, this will require a change of mindset among elites in420