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From Poverty to Power Green, Oxfam 2008 - weman

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5 THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM CLIMATE CHANGEdeveloping country, a company can earn credits for the reductionsachieved and apply them <strong>to</strong> its own emissions allowance. The CleanDevelopment Mechanism, run by the United Nations, involves tradingoffsets, while the EU Emissions Trading Scheme is a hybrid involvingboth kinds.The carbon market is a construct of government policy, and itseffectiveness hinges on the will and resolve of governments <strong>to</strong> set<strong>to</strong>ugh limits on emissions and reduce them over time. This is whatcreates market scarcity, driving the carbon price higher, creating theincentive for private sec<strong>to</strong>r ac<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> deliver more efficiency gains andgreater reductions in emissions. Most observers and market playersexpect that there will be an extension and that trading schemes will beexpanded <strong>to</strong> other countries and sec<strong>to</strong>rs. 231So far, however, carbon markets remain fragile, unproven, andhugely controversial. They are also relatively small, covering less than5.5 per cent of global carbon emissions in 2006. On the plus side, theyhave established market institutions, rules, and a price for carbon.That much constitutes an impressive piece of institutional innovation,and discussions about the future of carbon trading under a post-2012framework are buzzing. But the real test is whether this market willlead <strong>to</strong> rapid and significant emissions reductions and low-carboninvestments, in both North and South. And therein lie significantdrawbacks:• Thanks <strong>to</strong> industry lobbying, caps were initially set far <strong>to</strong>ohigh in Europe’s flagship scheme, and the price of carbonduly collapsed, removing incentives <strong>to</strong> cut emissions.Ongoing industry lobbying threatens <strong>to</strong> undercut proposals<strong>to</strong> introduce auctioning of emissions permits in<strong>to</strong> the ETS.• The price of carbon has been <strong>to</strong>o volatile <strong>to</strong> prompt thelong-term investments in areas such as renewable energythat are required if emissions are <strong>to</strong> be reduced. 232• Because carbon trading seeks reductions in greenhouse gasemissions at the lowest possible overall cost, it channelsprivate sec<strong>to</strong>r efforts <strong>to</strong>ward the cheapest reductions ratherthan those that are vital in the long-term, such as changes <strong>to</strong>infrastructure, new technologies, and dispersed emissionssources (for example, transport and housing).415

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