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Exhibit 7.18 Net present value of cash flows to Robinson (in millions).<br />

Exhibit 7.19 Net present value of cash flows to Robinson, worst case (in millions).<br />

Exhibit 7.20 Calculation of expected net present value (in millions).<br />

In our analysis we have a 95% chance of obtaining an NPV of $45.05 million and a 5% chance of<br />

obtaining a NPV of $4.98 million. Let‟s round these numbers to $45 million and $5 million.<br />

We can now calculate the expected value of $43 million (see Exhibit 7.20).<br />

Based on the assumptions this project is acceptable. Even more, it has a very high return. The<br />

currency risk has been eliminated by the government guarantee. Perhaps the biggest risk comes from<br />

fluctuations in the world price for coffee.

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