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There is very little, to no, empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of trade liberalisation. This is both because of theoretical and data shortcomings. Where deep integration issues are concerned, the vagueness of the language used in the EPA texts makes it hard to predict what the true outcomes of increased institutional cooperation will be. 6. Bibliography Burfisher, M., Robinson, R., and Thierfelder, K. (2004), ‘Regionalism: Old and New, Theory and Practice’, MTID Discussion Paper No. 65 (Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute) Busse, M. and Grossman, H. (2004) ’Assessing the Impact of ACP/EU Economic Partnership Agreement on Western African Countries’, HWWA Discussion Paper 294. August ECA, (2005) Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement, TRID team, Economic Commission for Africa. Evans, D., Gasiorek, M., Hayens-Prempeh, M., Iwanow, T., Jackson, K. and Robinson, S. (2005) Regional Trade Agreements with Developing Countries: Shallow and Deep Integration, Trade, Productivity and Economic Performance, DfID Project NUMBER 04 5881 Fontagne, L., Laborde, D. and Mitaritonna, C., (2008). ’An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions’, 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44194, European Association of Agricultural Economists. Gasiorek, M. and Winters, L. A. (2004) ’What Role for the EPAs in the Caribbean’, The World Economy, Vol. 27, No. 9, 1335-1362. Gasiorek, M., Litchfield, J., Haynes-Prempeh, M., Chwiejczak, J., Varela, G. and Winters, L. A. (2006) The Impact of the EPAs of the Cotonou Agreement on Trade, Production and Poverty alleviation in the Caribbean Region. Final report submitted by the Poverty Research Unit, Sussex University. Greenaway, D. and Milner, C. (2003). ’A Grim REPA‘, Internationalisation of Economic Policy Research Paper 2003/30, University of Nottingham. Hinkle, L. and Schiff, M. (2004) ’Economic Partnership Agreements Between Sub-Saharan Africa and the EU: A Development Perspective’, The World Economy 27.9. Karingi, S., Lang, R., Oulmane, N., Perez, R., and Hammouda, H. (2005). Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Keck, A., and Piermartini, R. (2005) The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements in Countries of the Southern African Development Community Journal of African Economies, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 85-130. Melitz, Marc J. (2003) "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November Milner, C. (2006) An Assessment of the Overall Implementation and Adjustment Costs for the ACP Countries of Economic Partnership Agreements with the EU, Report to the Commonwealth Secretariat. Shingal, A. (2009) ’Regional Trade Agreements and Service Trade’, unpublished. Viner, J. (1950) ’The Customs Union Issue’, New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 45
7. Annex Literature Countries Methodology Results Observations Fontagne et al (2008) “An impact Study of the EU- ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP regions. All ACP countries aggregated into the EPA groupings: COMESA, ECOWAS, CEMAC, SADC, CAR, PAC. - Dynamic Partial Equilibrium model 6-digits. (COMEXT, BACI and Ave from MAcMapsHS6v2) - Substantially all trade defined: 90% of bilateral trade in volume and/or 90% of tariff lines. - Full implementation in 15 years (2022) but EU in 2008. - Sensitive products selected using two methodologies. • H1: Agricultural products are prioritised in selection to avoid competitive pressures. • H2: Minimise tariff revenue losses at regional level. No Deep Integration. - Demand side model with infinite supply capacity (hence potential trade estimates rather than actual i.e. assume that ACP countries can satisfy extra demand). - Scenarios: • End of Cotonou, no EPAs hence GSP for dev countries and EBA for LDCs. • End of Cotonou, no EPAs and GSP+ for Dev and EBA for LDCs. • End of Cotonou, EPA and H1 and H2 scenarios and also successful Doha round. - Results are presented in deviations from these counterfactuals rather than from status quo. Effects will be larger as Cotonou preferences much better than GSP hence loss of Cotonou generates loss for most regions and then EPAs cause extra benefit. 46 • Increase in imports: average 7% in 2015 but 17.7% in 2022 • Tariff revenue: 70% loss(H1 scenario) on EU import takings but overall 26% of total in long run 2022 (H1). Under H2, loss falls to 19% in 2022. Costs of losing Cotonou (Exports - loss of 4% in total): • COMESA:- 12% • ECOWAS:-2.3% • CEMAC: - 4% • SADC: -1.8% • CAR: -9% • Pacific: -8.2% Effect of EPAs compared to baseline of GSP/EBA (2022) EXPORTS/ IMPORTS • AllACP: + 10.7% /i.e. 5.4% better than currently / +17% by 2022 (7% by 2015 due to tariff dismantling) • ECOWAS +4% / +15% • CEMAC +7% / +17% • COMESA +25% / +21% • SADC + 7% / + 11% • CARI: +25% / +27% • Pacific+37% / +0% Government revenues: Overall loss of tariff revenue (taking into account all origins) H1/H2 • AllACP: 25%/18% • ECOWAS 38%/27% • CEMAC 41%/30% • COMESA 21%/16% • SADC 22%/16% • CARI 16%/13% • Pacific 8%/8%
Page 1 and 2: EPA Review Annex Documents by Insti
Page 3 and 4: Part Three: EPAs as Instruments for
Page 5 and 6: Part One: Literature Review 4
Page 7 and 8: countries demanded more precision a
Page 9 and 10: essential and fundamental of EPA (h
Page 11 and 12: EPA group. However, after phase II
Page 13 and 14: Disagreements also existed on other
Page 15 and 16: ules of origin as a basis for negot
Page 17 and 18: would not meet WTO provisions. Even
Page 19 and 20: is only just about to conclude an i
Page 21 and 22: The EC took almost nine months to a
Page 23 and 24: Caribbean The CARIFORUM EPA was the
Page 25 and 26: services, CARIFORUM countries commi
Page 27 and 28: 2006. Moreover, PACP countries cons
Page 29 and 30: Table 3 Main Problems and Divergenc
Page 31 and 32: 4. Final comments The EPA’s negot
Page 33 and 34: creation) but can also lead to impo
Page 35 and 36: preferences and hence are likely to
Page 37 and 38: 3. Impact of the EPAs by Region One
Page 39 and 40: Cape Verde (loss of 4.1% of GDP) an
Page 41 and 42: SSA ECOWAS CEMAC COMESA EAC Table 2
Page 43 and 44: Perez (2005) CGE, 2001 base year 80
Page 45: Whilst most studies appear to agree
Page 49 and 50: Hinkle and Schiff (2004) "Economic
Page 51 and 52: Milner, Morressey and McKay (2008)
Page 53 and 54: Karingi et al (2005) “Assessment
Page 55 and 56: Greenaway and Milner (2003) "a grim
Page 57 and 58: Perez, R (2005) “ Are the Economi
Page 59 and 60: Case Studies Lessons 1. Introductio
Page 61 and 62: trade relation and negotiation matt
Page 63 and 64: EPAs negotiation process is paralle
Page 65 and 66: • EPA team The EPA negotiating te
Page 67 and 68: - State Secretariat of Environment
Page 69 and 70: Technical Negotiation Group (TNG) m
Page 71 and 72: spent for these impact assessment s
Page 73 and 74: Other opportunity costs Another imp
Page 75 and 76: Since domestic constituencies tend
Page 77 and 78: Table 11 Negotiating Meetings and R
Page 79 and 80: • An estimated $214,000 in travel
Page 81 and 82: The main expectation of the process
Page 83 and 84: Commission was forced to take up th
Page 85 and 86: Therefore, while negotiators could
Page 87 and 88: System Improvement & Human Resource
Page 89 and 90: Ethiopia - List of RNF meetings Amo
Page 91 and 92: Nigeria Cost of EPA negotiation-rel
Page 93 and 94: Dominican Republic Distribution of
Page 95 and 96: 1. Overview of existing resources f
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The FTRD that was responsible for b
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The support of the NDTPF and the ex
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dedicated sessions during the year
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Mauritius, Seychelles, and Madagasc
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3. Quantification of costs of count
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Ethiopia took a clear stance from t
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4. Perspectives on EPA negotiations
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5. Qns: Had you had more resources,
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) Basic knowledge on Cotonou Agreem
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Council of ESA Ministers Committee
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System Improvement & Human Resource
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List of RNF meetings 118 ANNEX VII
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EPA Review Study Nigeria December,
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contains the quantification of cost
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which appear to have crowded out ac
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Table 3 Resource Detail of Intra-Af
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Table 5 Capacity Building Programme
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Table 7 Cost of EPA Negotiation-Rel
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ADDRESSING THE LABOUR MARKET EFFECT
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Table 9 Annual Cost of Nigeria Trad
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Though the current negotiating stru
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• The simultaneous application of
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understand the changing environment
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7. Summary of Findings and Main Les
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opportunity cost could be quite sub
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• There is adequate technical adv
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5. Appendices Appendix Table 1 Rang
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EPA Review Study Dominican Republic
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c. Technical Level At a regional le
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2) From the ministers of trade of C
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The fact that the DR had previously
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- State Secretariat of Foreign Rela
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Table 1 Distribution of the Main Tr
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Figure 2 CARIFORUM Dimensions Diffe
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with the EU, in order to present a
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Table 4 Average Monthly Salaries EP
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In additional there were eight meet
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Per Diem Rate (US$) 500 A- Total of
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5. Perspectives of EPA negotiations
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usiness and political levels repres
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expectation of increases in exports
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8. Annexes Interviews Name Institut
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MAY o 05-06: WTO TWG on NAMA, Barba
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o 05-06: Joint Meeting of the Prime
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o 10-13: 12 th Meeting of CARIFORUM
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Trinidad & Tobago, 11-15 mayo 2007
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Reviewing services negotiations in
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Table 2 MMain differeences in serrv
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3. Services coverage in the CARIFOR
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In this exercise, it is important t
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196 ANNEX Provisions of the agreeme
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Tariff and Non-tariff barriers in E
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products could be extended until ye
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extended to the original partner. F
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than the rate applied on the proces
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RoO and the EPAs 1. Introduction Ru
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Table 1 Similarity of EAC countries
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that value added in ACP countries o
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The EU has yet to deliver a simple
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arrangements, are constrained by pr
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and non-oil exporting countries wit
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Common Market for Eastern and South
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to be seen. The Ethiopia case study
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fact that countries either export o
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development assistance in the EPA.
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References Bilal, S. and Stevens, C
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SPS Issues in EPA Negotiations 1. B
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The SPS committee provides an oppor
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of equivalence. Clearly, the Econom
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In the case of Ghana, where there i
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which relevant entities within thei
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Specific provisions While the final
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‘.....In addition, the Parties sh
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imparted to EPA signatories. In pra
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of the EC Party when these products
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So what have the EPA negotiations a
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Region/Country Year Total 2002 2003
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EAC CARIFORUM PACP Region/Country Y
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EAC CARIFORUM PACP Region/Country N
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EAS SADC EAC Country/Region Mycotox
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Country/Region West Africa CEMAC Co
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Development Finance and EPAs 1. Int
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evenues, one of the main sources of
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References Braun-Munzinger, C. ( 20
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