EPA Review Annex Documents - DFID

Gasiorek et
al
(2006)
Morrissey, O
and Zgovu,
E. (2008)
“The Impact
of Economic
Partnership
Agreements
on African,
Caribbean
and Pacific
Countries
Imports and
Welfare”
Scollay 2002
34 ACP
countries
-Comparative approach: use of indicators and trends
-Gravity model (1990-2000)
-Partial Equilibrium (6-digits): allows for highest revenue
yielding products to be excluded (80% cut off point)
PE as in Mckay et al (2008)
55
-Comparative approach: Trade diversion to predominate
-Gravity model (1990-2000) : OECS behave significantly
different to rest of CARICOM but trade diversion will
surpass trade creation and trade re-orientation.
-Strong scope for trade diversion, existence of trade reorientation
and creation but in smaller magnitudes. EC
trade into region to increase by 50%. Imposing
substantially all trade clause reduces this to 37%
Gravity does
not include
trade in
services which
is likely to be
important.
Zero trade
flows excluded