EPA Review Annex Documents - DFID

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Karingi et al (2005) “Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa EPAs” Sub-Saharan Africa as group and individuals. CGE (GTAP 1997) v5 • Scenario 1: SSA reciprocation of EU pref Tariff (all tariff reduced to EU level). • Scenario 2: SSA liberalisation. Deeper reg integration without reciprocity (S-S integration only for supply capacity building before reciprocation). • Scenario 3: Full trade liberalisation. EU-SSA EPA (all barriers fully eliminated). PE (WITS/SMART) 6-digit • Only looks at reciprocity (i.e. scenario 1). Hence effects of ACP countries liberalising to EU levels and no lib from EU. • Standard Armington assumption (imperfect substitutes). •Export supplies are perfectly elastic. • Benchmark is 2001-2003. •SADC treated as SADC and SACU (as BLNS entity). 47 CGE results • Scenario 1: SSA: GDP (-0.013%), M (+4.48%), X (+2.3%), ToT(- 0.54%), BoT(-1868$mln), EV(-564) • Scenario 2: SSA: GDP (0.5 %), M (+2.41%), X (+1.3%), ToT(0.3%), BoT(-629.8$mln), EV(1204.3) •Scenario 3: SSA: GDP (3.4 %), M (+18.24%), X (+8.8%), ToT(1.8%), BoT(-5484.3$mln), EV(8028.8) PE Results ESA: •Trade creation largely outweighs trade diversion in all countries � expanded EU trade (this comes at cost of less efficient domestic production and regional imports). •Revenue implications (in absolute terms): strongest for Kenya, Sudan, Mauritius, Ethiopia, DRC and Seychelles •Net: trade creation outweighs both TD and revenue losses ECOWAS: •Net trade creating (but loss of intra-regional trade through trade diversion) • Revenue implications: strongest for Nigeria and Ghana. CEMAC: •Net trade creating (intra regional trade is low hence little trade diversion from the region). • Revenue implications: strongest for Cameroon, Congo and Gabon SADC: • Net trade creating but some loss in intra regional trade through TD • Revenue implications: more serious for non SACU members Counterfactual scenario uses Cotonou preferences rather than possible enabling clause preferences. PE results presented in absolute terms hence hard to determine net effects in the economy. PE only looks at SSA liberalisation hence effects concentrated on increased EU market access and not SSA country MA into the EU.
Hinkle and Schiff (2004) "Economic Partnership Agreements Between Sub-Saharan Africa and the EU: A Development Perspective" Sub- Saharan Africa Qualitative analysis of the issues surrounding the EPAs from a development perspective. Analysis takes into consideration possible issues relating to: - 48 • Likely two tier negotiations due to enabling clause preferences • Overlapping FTAs likely to cause trouble if not properly managed (RoO). • Intra regional barriers are high and will have to be reduced. Regions may not be each other’s natural trading partners. • Revenue dependence calls for reform of tax system particularly VAT. • MFN liberalisation will reduce the scope for trade diversion • Preference erosion likely to be an issue. • Services should be included. • Investment provisions should be included to foster growth • Must not lose sight of comp policy and infrastructure.
Page 1 and 2: EPA Review Annex Documents by Insti
Page 3 and 4: Part Three: EPAs as Instruments for
Page 5 and 6: Part One: Literature Review 4
Page 7 and 8: countries demanded more precision a
Page 9 and 10: essential and fundamental of EPA (h
Page 11 and 12: EPA group. However, after phase II
Page 13 and 14: Disagreements also existed on other
Page 15 and 16: ules of origin as a basis for negot
Page 17 and 18: would not meet WTO provisions. Even
Page 19 and 20: is only just about to conclude an i
Page 21 and 22: The EC took almost nine months to a
Page 23 and 24: Caribbean The CARIFORUM EPA was the
Page 25 and 26: services, CARIFORUM countries commi
Page 27 and 28: 2006. Moreover, PACP countries cons
Page 29 and 30: Table 3 Main Problems and Divergenc
Page 31 and 32: 4. Final comments The EPA’s negot
Page 33 and 34: creation) but can also lead to impo
Page 35 and 36: preferences and hence are likely to
Page 37 and 38: 3. Impact of the EPAs by Region One
Page 39 and 40: Cape Verde (loss of 4.1% of GDP) an
Page 41 and 42: SSA ECOWAS CEMAC COMESA EAC Table 2
Page 43 and 44: Perez (2005) CGE, 2001 base year 80
Page 45 and 46: Whilst most studies appear to agree
Page 47: 7. Annex Literature Countries Metho
Page 51 and 52: Milner, Morressey and McKay (2008)
Page 53 and 54: Karingi et al (2005) “Assessment
Page 55 and 56: Greenaway and Milner (2003) "a grim
Page 57 and 58: Perez, R (2005) “ Are the Economi
Page 59 and 60: Case Studies Lessons 1. Introductio
Page 61 and 62: trade relation and negotiation matt
Page 63 and 64: EPAs negotiation process is paralle
Page 65 and 66: • EPA team The EPA negotiating te
Page 67 and 68: - State Secretariat of Environment
Page 69 and 70: Technical Negotiation Group (TNG) m
Page 71 and 72: spent for these impact assessment s
Page 73 and 74: Other opportunity costs Another imp
Page 75 and 76: Since domestic constituencies tend
Page 77 and 78: Table 11 Negotiating Meetings and R
Page 79 and 80: • An estimated $214,000 in travel
Page 81 and 82: The main expectation of the process
Page 83 and 84: Commission was forced to take up th
Page 85 and 86: Therefore, while negotiators could
Page 87 and 88: System Improvement & Human Resource
Page 89 and 90: Ethiopia - List of RNF meetings Amo
Page 91 and 92: Nigeria Cost of EPA negotiation-rel
Page 93 and 94: Dominican Republic Distribution of
Page 95 and 96: 1. Overview of existing resources f
Page 97 and 98: The FTRD that was responsible for b
Page 99 and 100:
The support of the NDTPF and the ex
Page 101 and 102:
dedicated sessions during the year
Page 103 and 104:
Mauritius, Seychelles, and Madagasc
Page 105 and 106:
3. Quantification of costs of count
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Ethiopia took a clear stance from t
Page 109 and 110:
4. Perspectives on EPA negotiations
Page 111 and 112:
5. Qns: Had you had more resources,
Page 113 and 114:
) Basic knowledge on Cotonou Agreem
Page 115 and 116:
Council of ESA Ministers Committee
Page 117 and 118:
System Improvement & Human Resource
Page 119 and 120:
List of RNF meetings 118 ANNEX VII
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EPA Review Study Nigeria December,
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contains the quantification of cost
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which appear to have crowded out ac
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Table 3 Resource Detail of Intra-Af
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Table 5 Capacity Building Programme
Page 131 and 132:
Table 7 Cost of EPA Negotiation-Rel
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ADDRESSING THE LABOUR MARKET EFFECT
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Table 9 Annual Cost of Nigeria Trad
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Though the current negotiating stru
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• The simultaneous application of
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understand the changing environment
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7. Summary of Findings and Main Les
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opportunity cost could be quite sub
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• There is adequate technical adv
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5. Appendices Appendix Table 1 Rang
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EPA Review Study Dominican Republic
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c. Technical Level At a regional le
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2) From the ministers of trade of C
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The fact that the DR had previously
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- State Secretariat of Foreign Rela
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Table 1 Distribution of the Main Tr
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Figure 2 CARIFORUM Dimensions Diffe
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with the EU, in order to present a
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Table 4 Average Monthly Salaries EP
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In additional there were eight meet
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Per Diem Rate (US$) 500 A- Total of
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5. Perspectives of EPA negotiations
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usiness and political levels repres
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expectation of increases in exports
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8. Annexes Interviews Name Institut
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MAY o 05-06: WTO TWG on NAMA, Barba
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o 05-06: Joint Meeting of the Prime
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o 10-13: 12 th Meeting of CARIFORUM
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Trinidad & Tobago, 11-15 mayo 2007
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Reviewing services negotiations in
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Table 2 MMain differeences in serrv
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3. Services coverage in the CARIFOR
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In this exercise, it is important t
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196 ANNEX Provisions of the agreeme
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Tariff and Non-tariff barriers in E
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products could be extended until ye
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extended to the original partner. F
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than the rate applied on the proces
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RoO and the EPAs 1. Introduction Ru
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Table 1 Similarity of EAC countries
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that value added in ACP countries o
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The EU has yet to deliver a simple
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arrangements, are constrained by pr
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and non-oil exporting countries wit
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Common Market for Eastern and South
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to be seen. The Ethiopia case study
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fact that countries either export o
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development assistance in the EPA.
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References Bilal, S. and Stevens, C
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SPS Issues in EPA Negotiations 1. B
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The SPS committee provides an oppor
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of equivalence. Clearly, the Econom
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In the case of Ghana, where there i
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which relevant entities within thei
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Specific provisions While the final
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‘.....In addition, the Parties sh
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imparted to EPA signatories. In pra
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of the EC Party when these products
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So what have the EPA negotiations a
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Region/Country Year Total 2002 2003
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EAC CARIFORUM PACP Region/Country Y
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EAC CARIFORUM PACP Region/Country N
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EAS SADC EAC Country/Region Mycotox
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Country/Region West Africa CEMAC Co
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Development Finance and EPAs 1. Int
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evenues, one of the main sources of
Page 263:
References Braun-Munzinger, C. ( 20
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