Agenda - City of Santa Monica

drier weather conditions. These effects were not incorporated in the demand
projections available in current planning documents, including the 2010 Land Use and
Circulation Element (LUCE). A comparison of current water demands and the LUCE
projected demands suggests that the LUCE projection may be too high. The 2010
LUCE projected water demands of approximately 15,300 AF in 2012; a detailed billing
data analysis shows actual demand in 2012 was approximately 13,500 AF – a
difference of 1,800 AF.
To plan for future supply needs, a comprehensive demand analysis was performed in
order to develop new demand projections that align more closely with current demands
and were adjusted for effects of weather and economic activity applicable to Santa
Monica. First, a new baseline demand projection was developed. This baseline
demand projection begins with current actual demands of approximately 13,500 AF in
2012 and grows at the same rate as the water demand projection found in the LUCE.
LUCE annual growth rates were used since it was developed based on the City's best
estimates of demographic and development projections used in the City’s General Plan
and other planning documents. Figure 1 compares the water demand projection found
in the LUCE with the new baseline demand projection.
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