SaHF DMBC Volume 1 Edition 1.1.pdf - Shaping a healthier future

Independent reports conducted by Tim Rideout Limited on behalf of the London
Borough of Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham Council
“there is insufficient robust rationale for automatically earmarking only two sites (Northwick
Park and Hillingdon) as major hospital sites. The business case undertook a piece of
analysis of blue light travel times analysing the impact of removing the A&E departments for
all eight hospitals. The removal of Northwick Park and Hillingdon showed the greatest area
that would be affected if these A&E destinations were removed. Ealing appears to be the
third largest (and darkest blue – indicating further drive time) area affected if Ealing’s A&E is
removed thus meaning that Ealing residents would have to travel further. No rationale was
provided as to why only Northwick Park and Hillingdon were earmarked as major hospital
sites, and not Ealing Hospital or West Middlesex. St. Mary’s, Chelsea &
Westminster and Charing Cross were discounted due to the lesser impact of removing these
A&E departments which, given the greater population concentration with a smaller area, is
slightly more justified”
The remaining feedback on travel analysis is described in Chapter 14 and does not pertain
to the evaluation of hurdle criterion 5.
9.7.24 The implications of this feedback on our analysis to indentify the geographical
spread of major hospitals
The feedback we received about hurdle criterion 5 did not include suggestions for
alternatives.
During consultation the travel modelling and the possible impact of increased journey times
was raised by a number of people, and was identified in the Ipsos MORI analysis as a key
theme from respondents. We undertook additional analysis to respond to this feedback. We
considered the feedback received as follows:
The travel map and s-curve analysis described above indicates that if Northwick Park
or Hillingdon weren‟t designated as major hospitals it could lead to the largest
increase in travel times for the largest geographical area of people:
o Blue light average times increase by 6 minutes (Northwick Park) and 4
minutes (Hillingdon), against a North West London average increase of 1 to 2
minutes
o Average public transport times increase by 17 minutes (Northwick Park) and
6 minutes (Hillingdon) respectively against a North West London average of
approximately 7 minutes
o 14 minutes for average private peak car travel times if Northwick Park wasn‟t
a major hospital.
Watershed maps
We developed watershed maps (see Chapter 12, Section 12.2.2) to show in further detail the
nearest major hospital as defined by the shortest journey time (private car, morning peak) for
each LSOA in NW London. The purpose of this analysis is show the „catchment‟ area, based
on journey times to the nearest acute hospital site.
Figure 9.21 show the LSOAs shaded according to their „nearest‟ hospital and the total
catchment area for each acute hospital, based on journey times. The map shows that the
catchment areas for Northwick Park and Hillingdon are the largest in NW London. Therefore
if neither were designated a major hospitals it would affect the largest area of NW London.
9b. Decision making analysis stage 5 310