SaHF DMBC Volume 1 Edition 1.1.pdf - Shaping a healthier future

Figure 9.68: Changes to population projections following 2011 census 1
Population changes for NWL
Change in population estimates
(2011 Census value minus 2010
SNPP estimates)
Relative % difference (compared to
2010 SNPP estimates)
2011 2012 2013
47,962 48,724 49,595
2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
▪ Population estimates across NWL are
c.50,000 (2.5%) greater within the 2011
Census than the 2010 SNPP projection
▪ SaHF modelling is based on Trust 2012/13
forecast outturn activity, therefore the actual
population across NWL as per the 2011
Census has been accounted for within this
Rate of population increase to 2018
Average annual change (2011-18) %
2010 SNPP
%
2011 Census
%
Hammersmith and Fulham 0.4 0.3
Kensington and Chelsea 0.0 0.3
Westminster 0.8 1.7
Brent 1.3 0.7
Ealing 1.2 1.1
Harrow 1.5 1.5
Hillingdon 1.5 1.6
Hounslow 1.6 1.5
NWL 1.1 1.1
▪ The rate of population increase across NWL
is very similar for both 2010 SNPP and 2011
Census population estimates, however
there are differences at borough-level, as
shown in the table.
▪ The 2011 census overall rate of increase of
1.1% pa differs across age groups, and
taking the differential rates of increase, plus
the relative cost of different age groups into
account, would indicate a cost-weighted
increase of approx. 2% pa
▪ The financial and activity modelling has
assumed total activity growth of 2.8% per
annum across NWL (equivalent to 3.9% in
financial terms)
Commissioners have the strategic intention to rebalance their spending from acute to out of
hospital while maintaining a minimum 1% surplus over the next 5 years. To do so,
commissioners plan £365 million net savings and £190 million investment, resulting in £555
million gross savings by 2017/18.
The gross QIPP of £555 million and the planned investment of £190 million are distributed
across the eight CCGs as shown in Figure 9.69.
1 Source: Comparison of the 2010 sub-national population projections1 (SNPP) with 2011 Census-based
projections.
This is a mid-year estimate produced by ONS based on the 2001 Census and “known” components of change in
the intervening years, i.e. births, deaths, internal migration and estimates of net international migration. From this
“known” base year ONS then project.
9d. Decision making analysis stage 6 and stage 7 386