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Evaluating Country Programmes 26 Figure 1.2. Conceptual model of causality between aid and development Decrease in reliability and precision of cause-effect analysis Source: Source: Authors. NON-AID FACTORS • Global political economy Partner government will and capability Disasters, etc. Intended effects Synergy Human dimension Structural change (economic, political and social) Attribution? Impact Attribution? Aid activities Aid strategy Unintended effects Fungibility COMPLEX AID PATHWAYS Non-project Chain effect/ effects influence Multiplier effects Evaluator’s perspective (deductive, bottom-up) Historian’s analysis (inductive, top-down) OECD 1999
OECD 1999 Country Programme Evaluation: Synthesis Report from the Workshop Box 1.3. Approaches to the construction of a counterfactual 1. Long-run growth models: forecasts based upon cross-sectional data and a limited number of assumptions with regard to demographics, resources and technology. Does not account for factors such as external shocks which might change the pattern of growth. 2. Large-scale econometric models. Simulations are run on multi-equation econometric models of the national economy (where such exist) to compare performance with and without assistance. 3. Country comparisons: comparing the performance of countries with similar baseline characteristics, one of which received aid and one of which did not (see below). 4. Induced implicit assumptions: the evaluator uses his or her assumptions about what explains unsuccessful operations to approximate what the situation would be in the absence of that operation. 5. Ex-ante counterfactual: at the initiation of a country programme donor staff should ideally prepare predictions of future country performance likely to occur in the absence of the donor’s operations. Country performance is subsequently compared to this and the difference attributed to aid. (Summarised from IDB, 1999b: 4) harder still because i) very few countries will receive no aid or aid from only one donor; ii) there are a great number of internal and external influences upon changes at the country level; and iii) the interaction between various causes and observed effects are extremely complex (e.g. synergistic and sequencing effects). 14 Some donors have nevertheless attempted such an approach (see the evaluation of American aid to Costa Rica, Chapter 11). An inductive approach which sought first to identify change and then to identify the causes (aid and non-aid) which explain that change would introduce more balance into the aid-centric picture of development that often emerges from aid evaluation. However, it is not practical for most donors. Instead, most CPE evaluators will of necessity concentrate their evaluation resources upon a more narrow, deductive study working outwards (or upwards) from their own country programme activities. 15 This is the second approach sketched in Figure 1.2, described for convenience as the “Evaluator’s perspective”. These two ideal types, describing polar ends of the spectrum of approaches, are however useful guides: some CPEs will have a broader approach, falling closer to the inductive end of the spectrum than others. 27
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