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Figure 3-22. Projections of Potential Sea Level Rise in Newfoundland and Labrador by 2099, relative to 1990 Mean Sea Levels (Source: Batterson and Liverman, 2010) TA1112733 page 72
The net long term sea level effect is the sum of global sea level changes and local geological impact. Batterson and Liverman (2010) have prepared projections of sea level rise by 2049 and 2099 relative to 1990 levels for four regions in Newfoundland and Labrador. The 2099 projections are shown in Figure 3-22. The projections are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted global sea level rise, potential accelerated ice melt, and regional trends of crustal rebound (uplift or subsidence) ranging from -1 to 2 mm/year. Disregarding any coastal erosion effects, itself significant in some areas, net sea level increases of 70 cm in Labrador to over 100 cm in the Avalon Peninsula are projected across the province by the end of the century. It is important to note however that Batterson and Liverman adopted the upper limits of projected climate change scenarios because of current trends in global CO 2 emissions and recent data on ice-sheet decay and global sea level rise. Community Cox‟s Cove (Zone 2-3) WRMD Region Central to Labrador Sea-Level Rise Projected 18 (cm) Flood Risk Zone Elevation 19 Differences 20 (cm) 30/80 or 40/90 30 to 90 Stephenville Crossing (Zone 2) Central 30/80 24 Placentia (Zone 1) East 40/100 16 Table 3-14. Potential sea-level trends by 2099 and effect on flood-risk zone delineation. Translating these net sea-level rises into flood risk zone delineations yields Table 3-14 adapted from Batterson and Liverman (2010). Note that while sea level rise is projected to 2050 and 2099, somewhat beyond the period of focus here, the flood risk zone elevation differences from 1 in 20 to 1 in 100 year return period events are only provided for 2099. Clearly it is necessary to also factor in net sea level rise in considering flood plain mapping for coastal communities. Finally, it is cautioned once again that coastal erosion, likely to increase with increased storm frequency and intensity combined with a reduction in shore fast ice, has not been included in this analysis. 3.4.5 Ocean Currents and Oscillations The two major currents that influence the local weather and global climate of Newfoundland are the Labrador Current and the Gulf Stream (see Figure 3-23). The Labrador Current carries cold 18 For 2050/2099 19 Sources of flood-risk data: Acres (1985): Martec (1988); Shawmount Newfoundland (1985) 20 Between 1:20 & 1:100 AEP (cm) TA1112733 page 73
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Page 55 and 56: Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
Page 57 and 58: Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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Page 65 and 66: 3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
Page 67 and 68: 3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
Page 69 and 70: Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Page 79 and 80: Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
Page 81 and 82: Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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Page 89 and 90: These increases, though slight, in
Page 91 and 92: Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Page 105 and 106: Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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Page 131 and 132: 4.1.8 Flood History Identification
Page 133 and 134: Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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Page 141 and 142: 5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Page 147 and 148: Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
Page 149 and 150: natural constrictions. The number a
Page 151 and 152: 5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Storm Duration Development of Proje
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1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
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Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
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Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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