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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 2.3 Projected Climate Data The objective of this study is to estimate the sensitivity of extreme precipitation events at the two weather stations of interest (Deer Lake and St. John’s A) to projected climate change. Development of information about projected climate conditions involves the following three elements, which are common to most climate impact studies: Emissions scenarios. Projections of future changes in climate, attributed to human activity, rely on projections of future concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), which in turn depend on current concentrations and future rates of GHG emissions. GHG emissions depend, in complex ways, on socio-economic development, technology, demographics and politics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a number of ―storylines‖ of future global conditions that are used as the basis for estimates of future GHG emissions. These storylines are documented in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000) and are often referred to as SRES scenarios. The IPCC did not assign a likelihood to the SRES scenarios. All are considered equally probable ―alternative images of how the future might unfold‖ (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Technical Summary). From the four SRES scenario ―families‖ (A1, A2, B1, B2), only the B1, A1B (a member of the A1 family) and A2 scenarios have been used as the basis for projections on many GCMs. These have come to be known, respectively, as the ―low‖, ―medium‖ and ―high‖ emissions scenarios, based on their impact on climate conditions in the year 2100. Global Climate Simulation. More than 20 GCMs are currently being developed, operated and maintained by national meteorological services, climate research centers and universities around the world. These models have been used to develop quantitative projections of future changes in climate variables, including temperature and precipitation, based on the SRES emissions scenarios. Each GCM is different, but many contain similarities in their conceptual approach and may even share simulation methods and codes. A single GCM will be used to generate many projections, each of which differ by the SRES scenario used to force the GCM, but also by the way in which the model run is initialized and constrained. Downscaled Climate Projections. GCMs operate on a grid that may range in scale from 100 to 200 miles on a side, and their output is provided at this same resolution. While each GCM grid cell covers from 10,000 to 40,000 square miles, a substantial watershed might cover a few hundred to a several thousand square miles, and many tributaries drain considerably smaller areas. Before GCM output can be used for AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 14
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 analysis of local conditions, or for local hydrologic modeling, it must go through a process called downscaling, which relates the large scale GCM data to detailed terrain and observed climate conditions. In addition, GCM projections contain bias, which is exhibited as systematic error in replicating observed conditions. These biases are usually reduced during downscaling with an ex post calibration process referred to as bias correction. This project used a set of readily-available downscaled projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset (Meehl et al., 2007) that have been biascorrected and spatially downscaled and archived by Maurer (2011). These data were downscaled as described by Maurer et al. (2009) using the bias-correction/spatial downscaling method (Wood et al., 2004) to a 0.5 degree grid, based on the 1950-1999 gridded observations of Adam and Lettenmaier (2003). The archive contains output from 48 model runs, or projections, of monthly precipitation and temperature, with each projection consisting of an overlap period from 1950 through 1999 and a projection period from 2000 through 2099. Each projection is the output from a run of one of 16 GCMs using one of the B1, A1B or A2 emissions scenarios. The GCMs in the archive are listed in Table 2-10. AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 15
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Page 221 and 222: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 255 and 256: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
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Page 285 and 286: 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
Page 311 and 312: Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
Page 313 and 314: Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
Page 315 and 316: Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
Page 317 and 318: Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
Page 319 and 320: Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
Page 321 and 322: Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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