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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 In addition to the projections performed using the methodology outlined above, projections from other researchers for St. John’s were compiled as well. Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. presents data for the 2020, 2050 and 2080 timeframes for modeling done by Finnis (as provided by WRMD), HadCM3 Global Climate Modeling downscaling (Lines 2008), and CGCM2 Global Climate Modeling downscaling (Lines 2008). All data are presented as precipitation intensities (mm/hr). Not all sources provided estimates for every time frame and return interval. Table 5-15 - St. John's A Projected IDF Tables, values from Other Researchers, 2020, 2050, 2080 timeframes, Precipitation Intensities, mm/hr Historical Baseline Return Interval Model Source Storm Duration 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr 50 yr 100 yr Finnis 24hr Lines (CGCM2) 24hr 3.2 3.8 4.1 Lines (HadCM3) 24hr 3.2 3.8 4.1 Finnis 12hr 2020 Timeframe Return Interval Model Source Storm Duration 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr 50 yr 100 yr Finnis 24hr Lines (CGCM2) 24hr 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.9 Lines (HadCM3) 24hr 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.8 Finnis 12hr 2050 Timeframe Return Interval Model Source Storm Duration 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr 50 yr 100 yr Finnis 24hr 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.3 Lines (CGCM2) 24hr 4.9 5.7 6.7 7.4 Lines (HadCM3) 24hr 5.8 6.9 8.3 9.3 Finnis 12hr 5.6 6.9 7.9 8.9 10.2 11.2 2080 Timeframe Return Interval Model Source Storm Duration 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr 50 yr 100 yr Finnis 24hr Lines (CGCM2) 24hr 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.1 Lines (HadCM3) 24hr 4.6 5.3 6.1 6.8 Finnis 12hr AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 42
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 5.3 Interpreting Uncertainty Uncertainty reflects imperfection in our state of knowledge, as distinguished from variability, which is the effect of random processes. In practice, such a distinction is not as clear cut, for example, the variability in atmospheric processes leads to considerable uncertainty about tomorrow’s weather. Nevertheless, it is important to respect the distinction, because while variability can be addressed in quantitative ways, uncertainty must be addressed, at least in part, by subjective judgment (Vick, 2002). Accordingly, deciding how to use the results of this work in the face of uncertainty will be a policy decision. Some background on the sources of uncertainty and suggestions on how to consider the results herein are provided in the following paragraphs. Barsugli, et al. (2009) identified the following sources of uncertainty in projections of future climate conditions: Climate Drivers—The anthropogenic component of climate drivers is greenhouse gas emissions which are formally quantified in emission scenarios. These scenarios in turn depend on projections of future socio-economic, demographic and technical factors. Climate Sensitivity—This is represented by the climate models themselves. The imperfections in climate models arise from coarse resolution, limitations in simulation of feedback mechanisms, limited knowledge of initial conditions and a number of other factors. Downscaling—This is required because of the coarse resolution of climate models and the local nature of impact assessments. All downscaling techniques introduce uncertainty. In addition, there is uncertainty in the models used to assess impact. These can include hydrologic models, statistical models (as is the case in this work), hydraulic models and operations models. Wilby and Harris (2006) found that the greatest uncertainty in climate impact studies arose from the climate models themselves, followed, in order, by the downscaling method, the hydrology model structure, hydrology model parameters (i.e. the calibration of the model) and finally by the uncertainty in future emissions scenarios. Uncertainty in climate drivers and climate sensitivity can be represented by using a large number (an ensemble) of climate projections. Fortunately, reasonably large ensembles of climate projections are available and can be obtained with a relatively low effort. However, the readily available projections of climate conditions are derived using one downscaling technique, so the uncertainty inherent in downscaling is not represented in the projection ensemble. This uncertainty may be considerable. AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 43
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Page 249 and 250: Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
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Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
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Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
Page 311 and 312: Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
Page 313 and 314: Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
Page 315 and 316: Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
Page 317 and 318: Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
Page 319 and 320: Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
Page 321 and 322: Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
Page 323 and 324: Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
Page 325 and 326: Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
Page 327 and 328: Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
Page 329 and 330: 49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
Page 331 and 332: Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
Page 333 and 334: Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
Page 335 and 336: Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
Page 337 and 338: Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
Page 339 and 340: Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
Page 341: Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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