Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 Table 2-10 - GCMs in Maurer Archive (after Maurer et al., 2009) Modeling Group, Country IPCC Model I.D. 1 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research BCCR-BCM2.0 2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis CGCM3.1 (T47) 3 Météo-France/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, France CNRM-CM3 4 CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia CSIRO-Mk3.0 5 US Dept. of Commerce/NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 6 US Dept. of Commerce/NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA GFDL-CM2.0 GFDL-CM2.1 7 NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA GISS-ER 8 Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia INM-CM3.0 9 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France IPSL-CM4 10 Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (JAMSTEC), Japan 11 Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA MIROC3.2 (medres) ECHO-G 12 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany ECHAM5/MPI-OM 13 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan MRI-CGCM2.3.2 14 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA PCM 15 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA CCSM3 16 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met Office UK UKMO-HadCM3 AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 16
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 3.0 TIME FRAMES Time frames adopted for this work are summarized in Table 3-1. Table 3-1 - Project Time Frames Description Time Frame Climate simulation overlap period 1950-1999 Climate simulation projection period 2000-2099 2020 projection averaging period 2005-2034 2050 projection averaging period 2035-2064 2080 projection averaging period 2065-2094 4.0 APPROACH 4.1 Candidate Approaches The Canadian Standards Association (CSA) has published the Technical Guide, Development interpretation and use of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency information: Guideline for Canadian water resources practitioners (Technical Guide) (CSA, 2010), which provides background about the methodologies used to develop IDF curves based on current climate, and a discussion about methodologies that are potentially applicable to the development of IDF curves that reflect projected future climate conditions. Appendix 8 of the Technical Guide provides a review of several approaches that, at the time it was compiled, had been applied to estimate the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to projected climate change. For detail on the available methods, the reader is directed to the Technical Guide and the references therein. The methods are summarized below in several categories: Extrapolation of trends. Linear regression is applied to observed historical data to characterize the trend in short-term precipitation extremes and these statistical models are then used to extend the trend to future periods. Direct interpretation of GCM output. GCMs provide output at a daily time step and at a grid scale that can range from about 1 to 4 degrees (approximately 100 to 400 km on a side at the equator, with the longitudinal dimension decreasing with increasing latitude). Some studies (e.g. Kharin et al, 2007) have used daily GCM output to characterize daily precipitation extremes. These methods cannot directly address time steps shorter than the time step of the GCM. Direct interpretation of Regional Climate Model Output. Regional climate models (RCMs) use a finer grid scale than is used by a GCM (e.g. 25 km for an RCM versus 100-400 km for a GCM). Because RCMs are usually ―nested‖, that is, their spatial AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 17
Page 1 and 2:
Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
Page 3 and 4:
GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
Page 5 and 6:
June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
Page 7 and 8:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
Page 9 and 10:
Assessing the Need for New or Updat
Page 11 and 12:
SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
Page 13 and 14:
Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
Page 15 and 16:
fresh water from the Arctic south a
Page 17 and 18:
watershed, which appears to already
Page 19 and 20:
RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
Page 21 and 22:
7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
Page 23 and 24:
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
Page 25 and 26:
7.3 References for Assess Need for
Page 27 and 28:
LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
Page 29 and 30:
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
Page 31 and 32:
1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
Page 33 and 34:
Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
Page 35 and 36:
2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
Page 37 and 38:
Management Framework for Canada def
Page 39 and 40:
The „Types of Events‟ field is
Page 41 and 42:
Field Damage Estimate by Community
Page 43 and 44:
Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
Page 45 and 46:
Storm # General Location Year Seaso
Page 47 and 48:
2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
Page 49 and 50:
Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
Page 51 and 52:
Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
Page 53 and 54:
Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
Page 55 and 56:
Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
Page 57 and 58:
Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
Page 59 and 60:
September is associated, presently,
Page 61 and 62:
3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
Page 63 and 64:
Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
Page 65 and 66:
3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
Page 67 and 68:
3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
Page 69 and 70:
Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
Page 71 and 72:
Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
Page 73 and 74:
surrounding areas were also evaluat
Page 75 and 76:
Watershed Community Total Area Fore
Page 77 and 78:
correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
Page 79 and 80:
Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
Page 81 and 82:
Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
Page 83 and 84:
The results for temperature are sim
Page 85 and 86:
Area Labrador West Central East Sum
Page 87 and 88:
West sees slightly larger winter in
Page 89 and 90:
These increases, though slight, in
Page 91 and 92:
Classification Maximum Sustained Su
Page 93 and 94:
Since air flow around high pressure
Page 95 and 96:
10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
Page 97 and 98:
One of the reasons for this increas
Page 99 and 100:
Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
Page 101 and 102:
Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
Page 103 and 104:
The net long term sea level effect
Page 105 and 106:
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
Page 107 and 108:
middle of North America as it would
Page 109 and 110:
e a higher incidence of tropical st
Page 111 and 112:
extreme will be considered. Areas t
Page 113 and 114:
Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
Page 115 and 116:
Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
Page 117 and 118:
o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
Page 119 and 120:
o Because winter temperatures show
Page 121 and 122:
Worst Case Scenarios This section
Page 123 and 124:
5. A hurricane making landfall on t
Page 125 and 126:
Standards Association 21 recommends
Page 127 and 128:
WRMD has defined a preference for h
Page 129 and 130:
The hydrographic network was used t
Page 131 and 132:
4.1.8 Flood History Identification
Page 133 and 134:
Watershed Slope The slope attribute
Page 135 and 136:
such as number of flood events at a
Page 137 and 138:
Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
Page 139 and 140:
TA1112733 page 109
Page 141 and 142:
5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
Page 143 and 144:
Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
Page 145 and 146:
Given the reported damages resultin
Page 147 and 148:
Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
Page 149 and 150:
natural constrictions. The number a
Page 151 and 152:
5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
Page 153 and 154:
Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
Page 155 and 156:
Community Access Notes Confinement
Page 157 and 158:
Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
Page 159 and 160:
Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
Page 161 and 162:
source of flood vulnerabilities com
Page 163 and 164:
Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
Page 165 and 166:
communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
Page 167 and 168:
Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
Page 169 and 170:
Analysis of the socio-economic data
Page 171 and 172:
East-2 Coastal communities line nea
Page 173 and 174:
6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
Page 175 and 176:
6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
Page 177 and 178:
Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
Page 179 and 180:
West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
Page 181 and 182:
Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
Page 183 and 184:
Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
Page 185 and 186:
TA1112733 page 155
Page 187 and 188:
Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
Page 189 and 190:
http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
Page 191 and 192:
Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
Page 193 and 194:
Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
Page 195 and 196:
Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
Page 197 and 198:
TA1112733 page 167
Page 199 and 200:
FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
Page 201 and 202:
GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
Page 203 and 204:
TA1112733 page 173
Page 205 and 206:
Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 255 and 256: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
Page 273: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 285 and 286: 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
Page 311 and 312: Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
Page 313 and 314: Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
Page 315 and 316: Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
Page 317 and 318: Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
Page 319 and 320: Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
Page 321 and 322: Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
Page 323 and 324: Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
Page 325 and 326:
Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
Page 327 and 328:
Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
Page 329 and 330:
49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
Page 331 and 332:
Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
Page 333 and 334:
Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
Page 335 and 336:
Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
Page 337 and 338:
Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
Page 339 and 340:
Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
Page 341:
Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
show all

Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?