Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

Brook and Deer Lake are both located in Humber River Watershed, from which future
forecasting systems can benefit from past forecasting efforts implemented by the Department of
Environment and Conservation, as discussed in Tom(2010). Tom(2010) provides
recommendations for future forecasting efforts in the Humber watershed, including moving from
numerical to physics-based hydrology models, installing snow surveys to facilitate the use of
remotely-sensed snow cover data, and extending the methods to the Exploits River watershed.
Placentia and Marystown are both located on the coast of Placentia Bay. These two towns,
along with St. John‟s, Codroy, and Stephenville are those towns lying directly in hurricane storm
tracks.
Those communities representing a medium priority include Badger, Belleoram, Carbonear,
Gander, Grand Bank, Hermitage-Sandyville, King‟s Point, Middle Arm, Mount Pearl, Rocky
Harbour, Rushoon, and Steady Brook. Some of these communities fall within the same
watersheds as communities included in the high priority grouping. Mount Pearl is located in the
same watershed as St. John‟s, while Steady Brook is located in the Humber River Watershed.
A number of these communities (Hermitage-Sandyville, Grand Bank, Belleoram, Rushoon,
Middle Arm, and Carbonear) were in the direct path of past hurricane tracks. Rocky Harbour
may be vulnerable to those storms tracking west of the island. Badger lies in the Exploits River
watershed, which appears to already benefit from a significant forecasting effort (Dept., 2011).
Communities with the lowest priority are Cold Brook, Daniel‟s Harbour, Ferryland, Gambo,
Grand Falls, Goulds, Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove, New-wes-valley, and Port Blandford. Of
these lowest priority communities, Daniel‟s Harbour, New-wes-valley, and Ferryland lie in past
hurricane storm tracks. Cold Brook would benefit from any forecasting or warning efforts
initiated for Stephenville.
To conclude, additional efforts should be first focused on those communities identified in the
high priority group. More detailed spatial information is needed to determine exactly what
resources (e.g., critical infrastructure) are at risk in each community‟s watershed, for a given
flood event. The collection of community plot and parcel data, identification of specific damage
estimates, and mapping of critical infrastructure would greatly facilitate vulnerability studies for
Newfoundland and Labrador. This information, combined with efforts to model flow inundation
levels and hydraulics would not only help determine vulnerabilities, it would also guide the
selection of the most appropriate flood forecasting and/or warning system. Newfoundland
seems to have relatively sophisticated forecasting efforts in place for two terrestrial watersheds
(Humber and Exploits Rivers) covering large portions of the island, as well as many of the
communities identified as vulnerable for this study. However, Newfoundland also has many
coastal communities, located in smaller coastal watersheds, subject to flashier flood regimes. If
not already in place, these watersheds will likely benefit more from a combination of
meteorological forecasts and coastal flood warning systems (see USGS, 2011 for an example).
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