Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

The net long term sea level effect is the sum of global sea level changes and local geological
impact. Batterson and Liverman (2010) have prepared projections of sea level rise by 2049 and
2099 relative to 1990 levels for four regions in Newfoundland and Labrador. The 2099
projections are shown in Figure 3-22. The projections are based on the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted global sea level rise, potential accelerated ice melt,
and regional trends of crustal rebound (uplift or subsidence) ranging from -1 to 2 mm/year.
Disregarding any coastal erosion effects, itself significant in some areas, net sea level increases
of 70 cm in Labrador to over 100 cm in the Avalon Peninsula are projected across the province
by the end of the century. It is important to note however that Batterson and Liverman adopted
the upper limits of projected climate change scenarios because of current trends in global CO 2
emissions and recent data on ice-sheet decay and global sea level rise.
Community
Cox‟s Cove (Zone 2-3)
WRMD Region
Central to
Labrador
Sea-Level Rise
Projected 18
(cm)
Flood Risk Zone
Elevation 19
Differences 20
(cm)
30/80 or 40/90 30 to 90
Stephenville Crossing (Zone 2) Central 30/80 24
Placentia (Zone 1) East 40/100 16
Table 3-14. Potential sea-level trends by 2099 and effect on flood-risk
zone delineation.
Translating these net sea-level rises into flood risk zone delineations yields Table 3-14 adapted
from Batterson and Liverman (2010). Note that while sea level rise is projected to 2050 and
2099, somewhat beyond the period of focus here, the flood risk zone elevation differences from
1 in 20 to 1 in 100 year return period events are only provided for 2099. Clearly it is necessary
to also factor in net sea level rise in considering flood plain mapping for coastal communities.
Finally, it is cautioned once again that coastal erosion, likely to increase with increased storm
frequency and intensity combined with a reduction in shore fast ice, has not been included in
this analysis.
3.4.5 Ocean Currents and Oscillations
The two major currents that influence the local weather and global climate of Newfoundland are
the Labrador Current and the Gulf Stream (see Figure 3-23). The Labrador Current carries cold
18 For 2050/2099
19 Sources of flood-risk data: Acres (1985): Martec (1988); Shawmount Newfoundland (1985)
20 Between 1:20 & 1:100 AEP (cm)
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