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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 maximum for each case. Then, the ratio of the calculated baseline annual maximum and the calculated projected annual maximum is used as an estimate of the climate sensitivity of the annual extreme precipitation. This calculated climate sensitivity is then used to adjust the historical precipitation intensities in the same manner as is shown in Equation 1. 4.7 Treatment of Uncertainty All measurements contain uncertainty, and estimates of future conditions are more uncertain than measurements. Each element of a climate impact analysis contains its own degree of uncertainty. These individual uncertainties do not add up in a straightforward way, but they do interact and each added element does increase the overall uncertainty of the final estimate of impact. The approach adopted for this work is intended to make the uncertainty arising from climate models as apparent as possible, so as to allow well-informed judgments regarding future water resources planning. In North America, the available projections from GCMs show that temperature is highly likely to increase. However, projections of future precipitation are more uncertain; e.g. in some parts of North America model projections disagree on both the sign and magnitude of changes in precipitation. The sources of this uncertainty include the data and structure of the GCMs, the methods used to relate GCM projections to points or small areas on the earth’s surface (downscaling), and the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Regardless of its source, uncertainty should at least be recognized and ideally should be quantified when climate projections are used for planning purposes. As a practical matter, uncertainty in climate projections manifests in disagreement between individual projections of future climate conditions and impacts. There are 48 statistically downscaled projections of future climate conditions (monthly average temperature and precipitation) that are readily available for the study area. The most comprehensive picture of uncertainty in future conditions can be obtained by analyzing a large ensemble of projections, as recommended in the CSA Technical Guidelines. Accordingly, all of the available projections have been used to produce, for each duration period and frequency, an ensemble containing 48 estimates of precipitation intensity. Neither the climate projections nor the results have been broken down according to the SRES emission scenarios because the intention was to represent the uncertainty in climate projections collectively, regardless of source. The overall results report the ensemble mean, the ensemble maximum and the 90 th percentile non-exceedance value for each intensity estimate. How to interpret the range AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 26
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051 2055 2059 2063 2067 2071 2075 2079 2083 2087 2091 2095 2099 Mean Annual Temperature Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 of projected results is a policy decision; some additional discussion regarding the interpretation of uncertainty is provided in Section 5.3. 5.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 5.1 GCM Projections of Precipitation and Temperature The evolution over time of projected precipitation, temperature and the product of precipitation and temperature for all 48 projections available in the Maurer archive for Deer Lake and St. John’s A are shown as 30-year rolling mean values in Figure 5-1 through Figure 5-4. 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Figure 5-1 – Deer Lake Station; Evolution of Projected Temperature Trailing 30-Year Projected Mean Annual Temperature Deer Lake, NL Overlap Period Projection Period Vertical bar denotes end of overlap period and beginning of projection period. Thin, colored lines represent individual projections. Black line represents mean of all projections. Year AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 27
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Page 233 and 234: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 255 and 256: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
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Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
Page 311 and 312: Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
Page 313 and 314: Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
Page 315 and 316: Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
Page 317 and 318: Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
Page 319 and 320: Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
Page 321 and 322: Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
Page 323 and 324: Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
Page 325 and 326: Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
Page 327 and 328: Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
Page 329 and 330: 49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
Page 331 and 332: Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
Page 333 and 334: Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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