Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

increase in the frequency and intensity of the most intense hurricanes is expected over the next
40 years. Their statistical assessment predicts an increase in the annual number of storms from
current climate by approximately 1 storm annually by the 2050‟s and by another 3 storms
annually on average during the last half of the 21 st century as shown in Figure 3-19.
Therefore, based on multiple studies conducted, the climate change currently being
experienced across much of the globe, including Newfoundland and Labrador, will continue to
promote an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclone development over the Tropical Atlantic
through the end of the 21 st century. Additionally, storms are expected to mature into more
intense hurricanes (higher category) and are expected to have an increased ability to survive
their track towards Atlantic Canada, arriving with more force as the increasing water
temperatures south of Newfoundland will not provide as much resistance to promote weakening
as experienced before the 1990‟s.
This analysis and the trends reported are especially valuable because, as explained earlier,
GCMs are not able to properly handle these meso-scale phenomena and downscaling
techniques and projected IDFs also use GCM outputs. Hurricanes, with their combination of
abundant rains over wide areas and strong winds producing significant storm surge and waves,
have, like Igor, caused some of the worst and costliest floods in Newfoundland (see Figure 2-2).
With increased frequencies and intensities anticipated in the coming decades, flooding events of
the magnitude of Igor, a Category 1 storm, are likely to occur more frequently. As Atlantic sea
surface temperatures warm, the probability of another Category 2 hurricane making landfall in
Newfoundland increases. In addition, it would not be unrealistic to expect a first Category 3
hurricane to make landfall in Newfoundland before 2080, perhaps before 2050.
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