Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

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2012 Projected Growth Population represents the combined projected population growth of all communities within each Sub-region between 2011 and 2020. Population statistics available through Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency were used as an indication of population growth to the year 2020 trending census data for the years 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011, as available from the Agency website. Growth Priority Factor represents the average of those communities included in each Sub-region. For individual communities, communities with a 2020 projected population less than 500 residents were issued a 0. Communities with a 2020 projected population between 501 and 5,000 were issued a 1. Communities with a 2020 projected population greater than 5,000 were issued a 2 as a Priority Factor Flood Damages Estimates Priority Factor represents the average of those communities included in each Sub-region. For individual communities, this Priority Factor indicates if a community has reported flood loss or has been documented by Public Safety Canada‟s Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements. Communities reporting flood loss were issued a 1. Communities not reporting a flood loss were issued a 0. Socio-Economic Factors Flood 2020 Sub-region Population Growth Damages 2011 Projected Priority Priority Estimates Population Growth Factor Factor Priority Population Factor West-CB 28,542 0.83 26,319 0.58 0.17 West-1 16,094 0.10 11,905 0.07 0.02 West-2 10,114 0.14 9,468 0.19 0.24 West-3 13,695 0.20 12,070 0.18 0.08 West-4 3,132 0.23 1,780 0.08 0.08 Central-1 36,460 0.22 30,018 0.17 0.04 Central-2 31,204 0.75 28,957 0.67 0.33 Central-3 4,422 0.14 3,369 0.14 0.14 East-1 29,987 0.13 25,561 0.09 0.04 East-2 71,613 0.24 65,788 0.22 0.03 East-SJ 188,560 1.00 191,467 1.00 0.07 Table 6-3. Sub-region Socio-Economic Conditions TA1112733 page 138
Analysis of the socio-economic data presented in Table 6-3 reveals reveals, through the flood damage estimates priority factor, that previous property loss is highest for Sub-regions comprised of inland communities (West-2, Central-2). The three Sub-regions with Growth Priority Factors greater than 0.5 contain the three largest communities on the island (Corner Brook, St John‟s, and Grand Falls Windsor in Central-2), supporting an observed trend of growth and re-investment of urban areas and a loss of population in rural communities. It should be noted that some of the most densely populated Sub-regions have the smallest Flood Damages Estimates Priority Factors (Central-1, East-1, East-2) 6.1.3 Summary of Sub-region Characteristics West-CB Corner Brook is the second largest community in Newfoundland (pop. 28,542) and is the focal point of this Sub-region of 12 communities. Communities here are located in close proximity to coastal and tidal areas and water bodies. Soils have low infiltration rates and nearby slopes are steep, further contributing to flood effects. These factors contribute to the fact that flood damages for the communities in the Sub-region are generally above average, with respect to the rest of the island. Population is growing in some of these communities, which may lead to a higher chance of flood damages in the future. West-1 This Sub-region is dominated by the Great Northern Peninsula on the northwest corner of the island. All 91 communities in the Sub-region lie along the coast; however, due to broad coastal plains and low population densities, previous damages caused by flooding have not been high. Considering the relatively moderate sea level rise projections in this Western Region, there is also a relatively lower risk of future flood damages. West-2 The majority of the communities included in Sub-region West-2 occur along the Trans-Canada Highway and Deer Lake. Damage from flooding is relatively high across these 21 communities, possibly due to the very close proximity of the Sub-region‟s communities to water bodies, threats from snow melt, and relatively steep slopes. West-3 This Sub-region includes the farthest west coastal portion of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, including Lourdes and Stephenville. The 40 communities within this Sub-region are tightly clustered in two main groups along the coast in his Sub-region; however, previous flood damages in this area TA1112733 page 139
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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Page 187 and 188: Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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Page 191 and 192: Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
Page 193 and 194: Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Page 199 and 200: FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Storm Duration Development of Proje
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1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
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Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
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Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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