Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

a near certainty, and an occurrence before 2050 (for a Category 2) and before 2080 (for
Category 3) cannot be ruled out;
A hurricane making landfall on the island would produce the very highest water levels in
Newfoundland. A very coarse preliminary attempt at quantifying the cumulative factors
was presented for illustration purposes only. Numerous other factors unique to each
storm and its behavior as well as the local topography would affect that high water mark
both downward as well as upward; and
As a result, it is recommended that other opinions be obtained, that further studies be
commissioned to more precisely estimate the high water levels, and that appropriate
emergency plans be developed.
3.4.8 Recommendations for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts
The following general recommendations are offered to assist the Government of Newfoundland
and Labrador in designing and implementing future studies that involve climate change analysis.
1. It is recommended that WRMD develop updated and projected IDF relationships for
locations across the Province with suitable past precipitation intensity records. While
IDFs characterize only one flood risk factor, precipitation, and do not capture the
seasonality of precipitation, developing projected IDFs for future time frames is a
worthwhile exercise especially if a means can be found to incorporate in that effort, the
results of dynamical modeling of hurricanes to 2050 and beyond. Seasonal IDFs could
also be developed and may be useful given that specific hazards are associated with
particular seasons (e.g., hurricanes/tropical storms in the fall and Weather Bombs in the
fall and early winter).
2. It is recommended that WRMD require that future net sea level rise be incorporated into
flood plain map development for coastal communities.
3. It is recommended that the Province of NL actively track ocean-atmosphere oscillations
in an effort to predict climate anomalies and hurricane intensity in particular years or
series of years in the future. The warm and cold cycles in the various ocean-atmosphere
oscillations that influence tropical storm frequency and intensity and other aspects of
Newfoundland and Labrador weather year-over-year, will also continue through to the
end of this century though their periodicity and intensity may change over the coming
decades.
4. It is recommended that the Province of NL complete a more detailed analysis of Weather
Bombs, similar to that conducted within this study on Tropical Systems, to determine if
these storms, often approaching Hurricane strength, are increasing in intensity and/or
frequency. This would be particularly useful in assessment flood potential on the island
of Newfoundland‟s east and north coasts.
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