Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

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In addition to the abundant precipitation, the counter-clockwise cyclonic circulation
around the storm caused sustained very strong south-westerly winds over the Bay of
Fundy which experiences some of the highest tides in the world;
The situation was aggravated by the fact that the Bay of Fundy lies in a SW-NE
orientation and narrows at the NE end thus causing surge to build further;
In addition, the Saxby Gale coincided with a perigean spring high tide causing
widespread flooding and devastation;
In the case of Newfoundland, it is clear that a Category 2 Hurricane could again make
first landfall along the south coast of the island of Newfoundland as Hurricane Michael
did in 2000;
Category 3 Hurricanes have crossed NL Marine areas, Ella brushed the Avalon in 1978;
Given the Hurricane analysis presented earlier and the trends reported in the literature, it
is to be expected that a Category 3 Hurricane will likely make landfall in Newfoundland
before 2080, perhaps before 2050;
TA1112733 page 84