Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

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Community Physical Hazard Ranking Direct Vulnerability Ranking Indirect Vulnerability Ranking Badger 2 1 1 Belleoram 1 0 3 Carbonear 2 2 1 Codroy Valley 2 1 3 Cold Brook 0 0 3 Corner Brook 3 3 2 Daniels Harbour 0 1 1 Deer Lake 3 2 1 Ferryland 1 0 2 Gambo 0 1 0 Gander 1 3 0 Grand Bank 1 1 3 Grand Falls 1 1 1 Goulds 2 0 0 Hermitage- Sandyville 0 1 3 King's Point 1 1 2 Petty-Harbour/ Maddox Cove 1 1 1 Marystown 1 3 3 Middle Arm 1 2 2 Mount Pearl 1 3 0 New-wes-valley 0 1 2 Placentia 1 2 3 Port Blandford 0 0 2 Rocky Harbour 0 1 3 Rushoon 1 0 3 St. John's 3 3 2 Steady Brook 1 1 3 Stephenville 3 3 1 Table 5-12. Physical hazard, direct and indirect vulnerability rankings for identified key communities. Communities are coloured by a suggested level of priority, with red being the highest priority, yellow representing medium, and green being lowest priority. These priority levels can then be used to determine towards which communities further study and funding should be directed. Those communities that should receive the highest priority include Corner Brook, Marystown, Placentia, Codroy Valley, St. John‟s, Deer Lake and Stephenville. These are the communities identified as being most vulnerable with the greatest need for flood forecasting and/or flood warning systems. Corner Brook, St. John‟s, and Stephenville represent three major population centers on the island of Newfoundland. Corner TA1112733 page 126
Brook and Deer Lake are both located in Humber River Watershed, from which future forecasting systems can benefit from past forecasting efforts implemented by the Department of Environment and Conservation, as discussed in Tom(2010). Tom(2010) provides recommendations for future forecasting efforts in the Humber watershed, including moving from numerical to physics-based hydrology models, installing snow surveys to facilitate the use of remotely-sensed snow cover data, and extending the methods to the Exploits River watershed. Placentia and Marystown are both located on the coast of Placentia Bay. These two towns, along with St. John‟s, Codroy, and Stephenville are those towns lying directly in hurricane storm tracks. Those communities representing a medium priority include Badger, Belleoram, Carbonear, Gander, Grand Bank, Hermitage-Sandyville, King‟s Point, Middle Arm, Mount Pearl, Rocky Harbour, Rushoon, and Steady Brook. Some of these communities fall within the same watersheds as communities included in the high priority grouping. Mount Pearl is located in the same watershed as St. John‟s, while Steady Brook is located in the Humber River Watershed. A number of these communities (Hermitage-Sandyville, Grand Bank, Belleoram, Rushoon, Middle Arm, and Carbonear) were in the direct path of past hurricane tracks. Rocky Harbour may be vulnerable to those storms tracking west of the island. Badger lies in the Exploits River watershed, which appears to already benefit from a significant forecasting effort (Dept., 2011). Communities with the lowest priority are Cold Brook, Daniel‟s Harbour, Ferryland, Gambo, Grand Falls, Goulds, Petty Harbour-Maddox Cove, New-wes-valley, and Port Blandford. Of these lowest priority communities, Daniel‟s Harbour, New-wes-valley, and Ferryland lie in past hurricane storm tracks. Cold Brook would benefit from any forecasting or warning efforts initiated for Stephenville. To conclude, additional efforts should be first focused on those communities identified in the high priority group. More detailed spatial information is needed to determine exactly what resources (e.g., critical infrastructure) are at risk in each community‟s watershed, for a given flood event. The collection of community plot and parcel data, identification of specific damage estimates, and mapping of critical infrastructure would greatly facilitate vulnerability studies for Newfoundland and Labrador. This information, combined with efforts to model flow inundation levels and hydraulics would not only help determine vulnerabilities, it would also guide the selection of the most appropriate flood forecasting and/or warning system. Newfoundland seems to have relatively sophisticated forecasting efforts in place for two terrestrial watersheds (Humber and Exploits Rivers) covering large portions of the island, as well as many of the communities identified as vulnerable for this study. However, Newfoundland also has many coastal communities, located in smaller coastal watersheds, subject to flashier flood regimes. If not already in place, these watersheds will likely benefit more from a combination of meteorological forecasts and coastal flood warning systems (see USGS, 2011 for an example). TA1112733 page 127
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Page 141 and 142: 5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Page 149 and 150: natural constrictions. The number a
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Page 155: Community Access Notes Confinement
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Page 163 and 164: Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
Page 165 and 166: communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
Page 167 and 168: Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
Page 169 and 170: Analysis of the socio-economic data
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Page 177 and 178: Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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Page 187 and 188: Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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Page 191 and 192: Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Storm Duration Development of Proje
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1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
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Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
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Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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