Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

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concentrations, emissions and impacts confirms that climate change is advancing more rapidly than estimated earlier (Bruce, 2011). When considering flooding risk, planning, and defenses to 2080, it is therefore important to also factor in the additional stresses that climate change may bring. A range of approaches, from sophisticated modeling to largely qualitative, have been applied in assessing the magnitude of the anticipated changes. Each has its strengths and weaknesses and some of these are discussed. One of the key climate drivers of Newfoundland and Labrador, ocean currents, are examined as well as sea level rise. An analysis of recurring phenomena responsible for some major floods on the island of Newfoundland, hurricanes and tropical storms, is also included. Finally, some possible worst case scenarios, that have occurred in the region or in Newfoundland with lesser intensity, and that are becoming more probable through this century, are considered. As with the broader project of which this is a part, the particular time frames of interest will be 2020, 2050 and 2080 and, wherever possible, the analysis will focus on the province‟s four Water Resource Management Division (WRMD) regions illustrated at Figure 2-1. 3.4.1.1 Modeling Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model data was obtained through the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network site 16 (CCCSN). Specifically, data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) 4.2.3, which is based on the Climate Model CRCM4.2 was obtained. The model was run over the North-American domain with a 45-km horizontal grid-size, 29 vertical levels and 15 minute time steps. The regional model was driven by CGCM3/T47 (Scinocca et al. 2008) outputs from a transient simulation following IPCC "observed 20th century" scenario for years 1961-2000 and SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2 scenario for years 2001-2100 (4th member from ensembles of five 20th century and SRES A2 simulations). In each figure, where appropriate, the year 2000 is represented by a dashed vertical line to delineate between the model runs based on historical data and the model runs based on the future scenario. The SRES A2 scenario assumes a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than other scenarios. The result of this scenario is that it produces the most carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen dioxide than all other scenarios except for the one scenario which assumes a fossil fuel intensive future. As such it can be assumed to be a fairly realistic scenario for a changing world. However, no one model scenario can be claimed to be more possible than any other. 16 CCCSN Website http://www.cccsn.ca/?page=ensemblescenarios TA1112733 page 48
Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to correspond with WRMD regions. The CRCM is driven at its lateral boundaries by CGCM3 atmospheric fields every 6 hours. Interpolation at CRCM's time steps was done linearly in time. The regional model was chosen for its finer resolution and the fact that the Canadian Regional Climate Models are tailored for Canadian conditions and topography. Furthermore, being a regional model it accomplishes the requirement for statistical downscaling compared to a global model (Lines et al., 2008). More information about the Canadian Regional Climate Model CRCM4.2.3 can be found in Music and Caya (2007). 3.4.1.2 Results The data from CRCM4.2.3 was analyzed in 3 ways. First, it was averaged for the three future periods relevant to this study, namely; 2005 – 2034 (2020), 2035 – 2064 (2050) and 2065 – 2095 (2080) for both summer and winter periods. These periods were chosen as they were used in a previous study (which is attached as an appendix) and this makes the results comparable to those found in that study. Second, images were produced for the four regions TA1112733 page 49
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
Page 27 and 28: LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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Page 31 and 32: 1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Page 57 and 58: Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Storm Duration Development of Proje
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1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
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Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
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Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
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Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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