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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR FLOOD RISK MAPPING PROJECT CORNER BROOK AND GOULDS/PETTY HARBOUR Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Submitted to: Water Resources Management Division Department of Environment and Conservation Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Submitted by: AMEC Earth & Environmental, a Division of AMEC Americas Limited 133 Crosbie Road, PO Box 13216 St. John's, Newfoundland & Labrador Canada, A1B 4A5 May 2012 TA1112735
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................ii 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 2.0 Data ....................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Historical IDF curves .......................................................................................... 4 2.2 Local Climate Data ........................................................................................... 11 2.3 Projected Climate Data .................................................................................... 14 3.0 Time Frames ....................................................................................................... 17 4.0 Approach ............................................................................................................. 17 4.1 Candidate Approaches ..................................................................................... 17 4.2 Selected Approach ........................................................................................... 19 4.3 Data Diagnostics .............................................................................................. 19 4.4 Use of Composite Historical IDF for St. John’s Area ........................................ 21 4.5 Fitting Models ................................................................................................... 21 4.6 Developing Projected Precipitation Intensity Values ........................................ 23 4.7 Treatment of Uncertainty .................................................................................. 26 5.0 Results and Discussion ....................................................................................... 27 5.1 GCM Projections of Precipitation and Temperature ......................................... 27 5.2 Projections of Precipitation Intensities .............................................................. 31 5.3 Interpreting Uncertainty .................................................................................... 43 6.0 References .......................................................................................................... 45 7.0 Appendix A. Model Parameters ........................................................................... 48 AMEC Environment & Infrastructure ii
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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Page 205 and 206: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 257 and 258: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
Page 285 and 286: 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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