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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 In 2010, Environment Canada developed updated IDF curves based on historical observations from the stations at Deer Lake (data from 1966 through 2002), St. John’s A (data from 1949 through 1996), and Stephenville A(data from 1967 through 2007). The documentation for these historical IDF curves included the record of the intensity of annual extreme precipitation events for nine event durations ranging from 5 minutes to 24 hours. Another historical IDF curve was developed by CBCL Limited based on a combination of data from the St. John’s A station and a second station at Windsor Lake, nearby (data provided by WRMD). To obtain projected IDF curves, the precipitation intensities in the historical IDF curves were adjusted to reflect projected changes in climate using a statistical modeling technique that is described briefly in the following paragraph, and in more detail in the following sections of this report. The approach selected for this work uses a statistical model that derives the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to climate conditions from the historical climate information for a site. In this case the historical climate was characterized by observations of monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation at the Deer Lake, St. John’s A and Stephenville weather stations. The statistical model, which is described in more detail below, was fitted to the local climate data and the historical monthly precipitation maxima using a form of regression. Information about future monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation was obtained from the output of 48 runs of GCMs. Each GCM run was compared internally to establish a projected future change in temperature and precipitation. These changes were used to adjust the historical record of temperature and precipitation to reflect future conditions, which resulted in 48 future climate scenarios that were based on the historical record but which reflected the projected future change in climate. This approach, which is referred to as the delta approach, is used to reduce some of the inevitable bias inherent in projections of future climate. The statistical model of extreme precipitation was then run against each of these adjusted records to obtain estimates of climate-impacted extreme precipitation intensities for each of the nine durations and six return intervals. These estimates reflect the bias in the statistical model, so one more run of the statistical model was made against the average historical climate conditions to provide a baseline set of extreme precipitation intensities. This set of baseline intensities was compared against each of the 48 estimates of climate-impacted intensities to determine the change in intensity attributable to the change in climate. These changes were then used to adjust the values in the historical IDF curve to obtain the final projected values of precipitation intensity. (This is another application of the delta approach.) The 48 projections used to characterize future climate conditions produced an equal number of estimates of projected precipitation intensities for each duration and return AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 2
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 interval. For reporting purposes, these results were aggregated into the mean, maximum and 90 th percentile non-exceedance value of precipitation intensity for each duration and return interval. This report also includes projected precipitation intensities developed by Lines et al. (2008) and Finnis (data provided by WRMD). 2.0 DATA This section describes the three data sets used in this work; the local extreme precipitation event data, the local monthly climate data and future projected data from the GCMs. The local conditions were characterized with three weather stations: Deer Lake (8401501), St. John’s A (8403506) and Stephenville A (8403800). Figure 2-1 shows the location of the weather stations with respect to the study areas. Figure 2-1 - Area Map of Study Areas and Weather Stations AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 3
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 209 and 210: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 255 and 256: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 259: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
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Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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