Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

7. It is recommended that WRMD develop updated and projected IDF relationships for
locations across the Province with suitable past precipitation intensity records. While IDFs
characterize only one flood risk factor, precipitation, and do not capture the seasonality of
precipitation, developing projected IDFs for future time frames is a worthwhile exercise
especially if a means can be found to incorporate in that effort, the results of dynamical
modeling of hurricanes to 2050 and beyond. Seasonal IDFs could also be developed and
may be useful given that specific hazards are associated with particular seasons (e.g.,
hurricanes/tropical storms in the fall and Weather bombs in the fall and early winter).
8. It is recommended that WRMD require future net sea level rise be incorporated into flood
plain map development for coastal communities.
9. It is recommended that the Province of NL actively track ocean-atmosphere oscillations in
an effort to predict climate anomalies and hurricane intensity in particular years or series of
years in the future. The warm and cold cycles in the various ocean-atmosphere oscillations
that influence tropical storm frequency and intensity and other aspects of Newfoundland and
Labrador weather year-over-year, will also continue through to the end of this century
though their periodicity and intensity may change over the coming decades.
10. It is recommended that the Province of NL complete a more detailed analysis of Weather
Bombs, similar to that conducted within this study on Tropical Systems, to determine if these
storms, often approaching Hurricane strength, are increasing in intensity and/or frequency.
This would be particularly useful in assessment flood potential on the island of
Newfoundland‟s east and north coasts.
11. A hurricane making landfall on the island would produce the very highest water levels in
Newfoundland. A coarse preliminary attempt at quantifying the cumulative factors was
presented for illustration purposes only. Numerous other factors, unique to each storm and
its particular behavior, as well as the local topography would affect that high water mark
both downward as well as upward. As a result, a range of recommendations to mitigate
damages should be considered. Firstly, since a 1 in 50 year event could occur in a year or
two from now, local emergency plans should be reviewed to ensure they include the
potential impacts of a Hurricane. Additional measures may also be required to ensure
public safety such as evacuation routes etc. Secondly, a closer study of Hurricanes is
recommended to determine a range of likely tracks and intensities with a view to better
assessing the likely wind directions and storm surges which specific communities may have
to deal with. Such a greater understanding of the Hurricane threat to the island may then
allow a close assessment of the impacts of such hypothetical storms in specific communities
given their unique topography. Finally, flood plain maps for these vulnerable communities
could be updated and other defenses considered.
Assess Need for New / Updated Flood Risk Mapping
12. It is recommended that the WRMD encourage alignment between databases that reference
communities in the Province. An example would be alignment between the LGP database
and those maintained by Statistics Canada which track census information.
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