Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

concentrations, emissions and impacts confirms that climate change is advancing more rapidly
than estimated earlier (Bruce, 2011). When considering flooding risk, planning, and defenses to
2080, it is therefore important to also factor in the additional stresses that climate change may
bring. A range of approaches, from sophisticated modeling to largely qualitative, have been
applied in assessing the magnitude of the anticipated changes. Each has its strengths and
weaknesses and some of these are discussed. One of the key climate drivers of Newfoundland
and Labrador, ocean currents, are examined as well as sea level rise. An analysis of recurring
phenomena responsible for some major floods on the island of Newfoundland, hurricanes and
tropical storms, is also included. Finally, some possible worst case scenarios, that have
occurred in the region or in Newfoundland with lesser intensity, and that are becoming more
probable through this century, are considered.
As with the broader project of which this is a part, the particular time frames of interest will be
2020, 2050 and 2080 and, wherever possible, the analysis will focus on the province‟s four
Water Resource Management Division (WRMD) regions illustrated at Figure 2-1.
3.4.1.1 Modeling
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model data was obtained through the Canadian Climate
Change Scenarios Network site 16 (CCCSN). Specifically, data from the Canadian Regional
Climate Model (CRCM) 4.2.3, which is based on the Climate Model CRCM4.2 was obtained.
The model was run over the North-American domain with a 45-km horizontal grid-size, 29
vertical levels and 15 minute time steps. The regional model was driven by CGCM3/T47
(Scinocca et al. 2008) outputs from a transient simulation following IPCC "observed 20th
century" scenario for years 1961-2000 and SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2
scenario for years 2001-2100 (4th member from ensembles of five 20th century and SRES A2
simulations). In each figure, where appropriate, the year 2000 is represented by a dashed
vertical line to delineate between the model runs based on historical data and the model runs
based on the future scenario. The SRES A2 scenario assumes a very heterogeneous world
with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is
more fragmented and slower than other scenarios. The result of this scenario is that it produces
the most carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen dioxide than all other scenarios except for the
one scenario which assumes a fossil fuel intensive future. As such it can be assumed to be a
fairly realistic scenario for a changing world. However, no one model scenario can be claimed
to be more possible than any other.
16 CCCSN Website http://www.cccsn.ca/?page=ensemblescenarios
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