Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

causal event in 66% of the flood events in the inventory. Other casual factors include coastal
processes, snow melt and ice jams. The average annual damage associated with flooding is
estimated to be between $8.1 million and $22.5 million.
Land Use Change
A land cover classification analysis was conducted in thirty-nine community flood watersheds
across the island of Newfoundland. Across the thirty-nine community flood watersheds
assessed, only one did not experience a loss of forest cover over the assessment period. The
other community flood watersheds experienced loss of forest cover in the range of about 4% to
almost 28%.
Climate Change
The particular time frames of interest for the climate change assessment were 2020, 2050 and
2080. Areas of focus for the climate change assessment were projected climate, hurricanes and
tropical storms, sea level rise, ocean currents, and some possible worst case scenarios.
Precipitation is anticipated to increase in the future as average temperatures rise across the
Province. This represents an influence towards increased flood risk across the Province,
especially in winter for all WRMD regions. Additionally, storms are expected to mature into more
intense hurricanes (higher category) and are expected to have an increased ability to survive
their track towards Atlantic Canada, arriving with more force as the increasing water
temperatures south of Newfoundland will not provide as much resistance to promote weakening
as experienced before the 1990‟s.
Sea level is an ocean indicator for climate change. Sea level in the Province has been
observed to be rising relative to benchmarks and wharf deck elevations.
The two major ocean currents that influence the local weather and global climate of
Newfoundland are the Labrador Current and the Gulf Stream. These currents, which exert a
major influence on Newfoundland and Labrador climate, are not expected to change
significantly as a result of global warming over this century.
Worst case scenarios are intense phenomena that may occur in isolation or in combination with
other events, or circumstances that could lead to extreme water levels and hence flooding
conditions. A preliminary, largely qualitative, assessment of scenarios that could lead to extreme
flooding in parts of Newfoundland and Labrador was completed, focusing on winter rain,
weather bombs, hurricanes and tropical storms, and severe summer weather. While these
phenomena are considered rare, most of these events have occurred in the past and are likely
to occur again.
TA1112733
iii