Flood Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Project - Atlantic Climate ...

Storms weaken rapidly once they make landfall and most such storms have not been of
Hurricane force when hitting Newfoundland, especially western Newfoundland given that
for a hurricane to pass west of the island, it would almost necessarily have had to pass
over some part of the Maritimes and would have been weakened considerably as a
result;
Several peer-reviewed studies show a global trend toward increased intensity of the
strongest hurricanes over the past several decades. The strongest trends are in the
North Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean. This is consistent with this study‟s findings.
Figure 3-17 confirms the increase in the last several decades. Figure 3-18 also shows
an increase in Tropical Storms entering Newfoundland coastal waters in the last 2
decades and a very marked increase of storms making landfall in eastern Newfoundland
in the last decade. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), it is “more likely than not”
(better than even odds) that there is a human contribution to the observed trend of
hurricane intensification since the 1970s. In the future, “it is likely [better than 2 to 1
odds] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense,
with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing
increases of tropical sea surface temperatures”;
Bruce (2011) also points out that with increasing global temperatures and increasing
equatorial water temperatures, more intense Hurricanes are likely to develop and, while
tracks are not expected to change, the storms will retain greater force as they reach
more northern latitudes. While it is not possible to state that any particular event is or is
not a result of global warming, Hurricane Igor, was able to retain Category 1 strength as
it passed over the Avalon Peninsula (see track at Figure 3-27) and it caused the most
devastating floods in Newfoundland history (see Figure 2-2).
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms combine intense rainfall with very strong winds
(Category 1 Hurricanes ≥ 120 km/hr) producing significant storm surge and wind induced
waves;
Though there will likely continue to be decades in the future with greater and lesser
activity, more intense Hurricanes and Tropical Storms will likely affect the island of
Newfoundland with the higher intensity storms impacting especially the Eastern WRMD
many of whose coastal communities would also be subject to storm surge and waves;
In terms of worst case scenario for these cyclones, consider the Saxby Gale of Oct
1869:
o
This „gale‟ was essentially a Hurricane which tracked over Cape Cod and made
landfall in Maine, and then tracked across northern New Brunswick ( see Figure
3-27);
TA1112733 page 83