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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 The additional uncertainty arising from impact models is not ordinarily evaluated in impact studies, as using multiple hydrologic models, each with multiple calibrations along with multiple hydraulic or operations models, is simply too costly for most agencies. However, it is important to recognize that decision-makers have routinely relied on the results of impact models as the basis for planning and operational decisions, and thus have implicitly accepted the uncertainties in those models. This work involves a statistical model that, strictly speaking, serves as a second downscaling method. The model takes as inputs projections of climate conditions, downscaled to average conditions over a 1/2 degree grid cell and further downscales those conditions to a single point, in this case the Deer Lake and St. John’s A Stations. The model also relates monthly average conditions to monthly, and eventually annual, extreme events. The model assumes that there is a causal relationship between monthly values of the predictor variables (total precipitation and average temperature) and monthly and annual maximum precipitation intensities, and that that relationship will remain unchanged as climate evolves. It can be safely assumed that in strict terms this assumption will not hold up, but it is the basis, at some level, of all estimates of future conditions. The results presented herein represent one estimate of the range of future extreme precipitation intensity. That range is informed by the range of future projections of monthly average climate conditions, which themselves reflect the range of emissions scenarios and the different degrees of climate sensitivity among the GCMs. However, it is exceedingly important to recognize that an ensemble of projections, such as the one used in this study, may not capture the full range of uncertainty. That is, there is some unknown and unknowable probability that the actual future conditions are not contained in the range of projections in any given ensemble. Further, as noted above, there is additional uncertainty inherent in the downscaling technique and the statistical model that are not reflected in the currently-available ensembles. Accordingly, the results of this work should be used in combination with all relevant sources of information, including recent experience, and with careful professional judgment. AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 44
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 6.0 REFERENCES Adam, J. C. and D. P. Lettenmaier (2003). Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 1–14, 2003. Akaike, H. (1974), New look at statistical-model identification, IEEE Trans Automatic Control, 19, 716-723. Barsugli, J., Anderson, C., Smith, J. and Vogel, J.: Options for Improving Climate Modeling to Assist Water Utility Planning for Climate Change. Water Utility Climate Alliance. San Francisco, California, 2009. Canadian Standards Association, (2010). Technical Guide. Development, interpretation and use of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) information: Guideline for Canadian water resources practitioners. Review Draft. Furrer, E. M. and R. W. Katz, (2007). Generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators. Climate Research, Vol. 34: 129-144, 2007. Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, (2011). A Study of Climate Monitoring Capabilities in Newfoundland and Labrador: Parts II and III: User Needs Analysis and Recommendations. Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading. 7 November 2011. Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier (1999). Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(6):1597–1623. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and G.C. Hegerl (2007). Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate, 20 (8), 1419-1444. Lines, G. S., M. Pancura, C. Lander, L. Titus (2008). Climate Change Scenarios for Atlantic Canada Utilizing a Statistical Downscaling Model Based on Two Global Climate Models. Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region, Science Report Series 2009-01. AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 45
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Page 251 and 252: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
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Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
Page 311 and 312: Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
Page 313 and 314: Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
Page 315 and 316: Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
Page 317 and 318: Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Page 321 and 322: Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
Page 323 and 324: Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
Page 325 and 326: Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
Page 327 and 328: Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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Page 331 and 332: Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Page 335 and 336: Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
Page 337 and 338: Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
Page 339 and 340: Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
Page 341: Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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