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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 Figure 4-1 - Development of Adjusted Observed Climate Using the Delta Method Simulated Future Climate “Deltas” Adjust (Eqns. 1 & 2) Current Climate Simulated Overlap Climate Adjusted Observed Climate In adjusting precipitation the ―delta‖ is in the form of a ratio as shown in Equation 1. Psf Pp Pc (1) P Where: P sf is the simulated future precipitation, P so is the simulated overlap precipitation, P c is the current observed precipitation and P p is the projected future precipitation. so In adjusting temperature, the ―delta‖ was in the form of an offset, as shown in Equation 2. T p c sf so T T T (2) Where: T sf is the simulated future temperature, T so is the simulated overlap temperature, T c is the current observed temperature and T p is the projected future temperature. The GLM also exhibits inherent bias. In principal every aspect of the method Environment Canada uses to develop IDF curves could be duplicated which would allow for exact replication of the historical precipitation intensities. However, once the distributions are modified in the GLM framework to include covariates, the method and results would deviate from those of Environment Canada. Further, the available GLM fitting routines use different statistical packages and a different method of fitting (maximum likelihood rather than the method of moments) than is used by Environment Canada. Because these differences will introduce bias into the estimates of precipitation intensities, a second application of the delta method was applied to adjust AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 24
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 the historical IDF curve. The calculation is done in the same manner as shown in Equations 1 and 2. The method is illustrated in Figure 4-2. Figure 4-2 - Development of the Final Projected IDF Baseline Case Observed Climate Intensity Model Baseline IDF Historical IDF Climate-impacted Case IDF Deltas Adjust (Eq. 1) Adjusted Observed Climate Intensity Model Climate- Impacted IDF Projected IDF For each precipitation duration, the intensity model is run once against the observed climate to generate a baseline intensity distribution. This distribution is used to develop estimates of baseline intensity for each return interval. The intensity model is then run again for each climate projection, this time using the adjusted observed climate value developed from that projection. This generates, for each projection, a climate-impacted probability distribution from which climate impacted precipitation intensities are generated for each return interval. The final projected precipitation intensities for each return interval are calculated using Equation 1. The intensity models are estimated on a seasonal basis, that is, by pooling all data for the months of May through October. This results in a model that captures the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to covariates (temperature, precipitation and the product of precipitation and temperature) exhibited over that season. This is done to increase the size of the data set used to estimate the statistical models, which increases their significance. The models are applied to estimate projected intensities on a monthly basis in order to capture shifts in extreme precipitation caused by projected seasonal shifts in temperature and precipitation. Projected and observed intensities are first estimated for each month, each duration and each frequency. Then, for each GCM, duration and frequency, the maximum of the monthly intensities is taken as the annual maximum. This process is completed for each duration for both the baseline and the projected case to determine an annual AMEC Environment & Infrastructure 25
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
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Flood # Storm # General Location St
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Page 231 and 232: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 255 and 256: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
Page 281: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 285 and 286: 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
Page 309 and 310: Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
Page 311 and 312: Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
Page 313 and 314: Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
Page 315 and 316: Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
Page 317 and 318: Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
Page 319 and 320: Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
Page 321 and 322: Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
Page 323 and 324: Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
Page 325 and 326: Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
Page 327 and 328: Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
Page 329 and 330: 49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
Page 331 and 332: Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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