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Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1 - Area Map of Study Areas and Weather Stations ......................................... 3 Figure 2-2 - Historical IDF Curve, Deer Lake Station, 8401501 ...................................... 5 Figure 2-3 - Historical IDF Curve, Stephenville A Station, 8403800 ................................ 7 Figure 2-4 - Historical IDF Curve, St. John’s A Station, 8403506 .................................... 9 Figure 2-5 – Public Forecast Warning Areas and Project Sites ..................................... 13 Figure 4-1 - Development of Adjusted Observed Climate Using the Delta Method ....... 24 Figure 4-2 - Development of the Final Projected IDF .................................................... 25 Figure 5-1 – Deer Lake Station; Evolution of Projected Temperature ........................... 27 Figure 5-2 – Deer Lake Station; Evolution of Projected Precipitation ............................ 28 Figure 5-3 – St. John’s A Station; Evolution of Projected Temperature ........................ 29 Figure 5-4 – St. John’s A Station; Evolution of Projected Precipitation ......................... 29 INDEX OF TABLES Table 2-1 - Historical IDF Table, Deer Lake Station, 8401501, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr .................................................................................. 5 Table 2-2 - Historical Annual Maximum Precipitation Events Deer Lake Station, 8401501, mm .................................................................................................................. 6 Table 2-3 - Historical IDF Table, Stephenville A Station, 8403800, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ................................................................. 7 Table 2-4 - Historical Annual Maximum Precipitation Events Stephenville A Station, 8403800, mm .................................................................................................................. 8 Table 2-5 - Historical IDF Table, St. John’s A Station, 8403506, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr .................................................................................. 9 Table 2-6 - Historical IDF Table, St. John’s Composite Record, Updated March 2012, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ........................................... 10 Table 2-7 - Historical Annual Maximum Precipitation Events St. John’s A Station, 8403506, mm ................................................................................................................ 11 AMEC Environment & Infrastructure iii
Development of Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Corner Brook and Goulds/Petty Harbour, Newfoundland May 16, 2012 Table 2-8 - Historical Climate Data Elements ................................................................ 12 Table 2-9 - Summary of Availability of Historic Monthly Data ........................................ 12 Table 2-10 - GCMs in Maurer Archive ........................................................................... 16 Table 3-1 - Project Time Frames ................................................................................... 17 Table 4-1 - Occurrence of Annual Extreme Precipitation, Deer Lake Station ................ 20 Table 4-2 - Occurrence of Annual Extreme Precipitation, St. John’s A Station ............. 20 Table 4-3 - Best Predictor Variables.............................................................................. 23 Table 5-1 - Range of Projected Climate Variables, Deer Lake Site ............................... 30 Table 5-2 - Range of Projected Climate Variables, St. John’s A Site ............................ 30 Table 5-3 - Historical IDF Table, Deer Lake Station, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr .............................................................................................. 31 Table 5-4 - Historical IDF Table, St. John’s A Station, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr .............................................................................................. 31 Table 5-5 - St. John’s Composite Record, Updated March 2012, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ................................................................................ 31 Table 5-6 - Deer Lake Projected IDF Tables, 2020 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ................................................................................ 33 Table 5-7 - Deer Lake Projected IDF Tables, 2050 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ................................................................................ 34 Table 5-8 - Deer Lake Projected IDF Tables, 2080 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ................................................................................ 35 Table 5-9 - St. John's A Projected IDF Tables, 2020 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ............................................................... 36 Table 5-10 - St. John's A Projected IDF Tables, 2050 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ............................................................... 37 Table 5-11 - St. John's A Projected IDF Tables, 2080 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ............................................................... 38 Table 5-12 - St. John's Composite Record, Updated March 2012 Projected IDF Tables, 2020 Time Period, Precipitation intensities over the specified duration, mm/hr ............ 39 AMEC Environment & Infrastructure iv
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Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutio
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GOVERNMENT OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABR
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June 13, 2012 AMEC Project #TA11127
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Government of
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Assessing the Need for New or Updat
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SUMMARY The Government of Newfoundl
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Land Use Change A pre-cursor effort
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fresh water from the Arctic south a
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watershed, which appears to already
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RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY Infrastructu
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7. It is recommended that WRMD deve
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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SU
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7.3 References for Assess Need for
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LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1. Flood Eve
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1. Water R
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1. OVERVIEW In the 1980‟s, under
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Floodway Floodway Fringe Climate Ch
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2. Task B - Updated Flood Events In
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Management Framework for Canada def
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The „Types of Events‟ field is
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Field Damage Estimate by Community
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Arrangements 10 (DFAA) damage estim
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Storm # General Location Year Seaso
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2.3.2 Weather Events - Annual Occur
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Figure 2-6. Storm Occurrence by Yea
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Figure 2-8. Storm Occurrence by Mon
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Type of Event (Grouped) % Occurrenc
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Figure 2-11. Flood Occurrence by Se
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Coastal Flooding Coastal Flooding a
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September is associated, presently,
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3. Task C - Assess Existing Flood R
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Gaudon‟s Brook / Cold Brook Steph
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3.3.2.1 Community Flood Watersheds
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3.3.2.3 Earth Observation for Susta
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Figure 3-3. Graphical model of land
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Original EOSD Classes Shadow Water
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surrounding areas were also evaluat
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Watershed Community Total Area Fore
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correct). Of the 90 accuracy assess
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Figure 3-6. GCM sectors selected to
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Figure 3-7. Percentage change of pr
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The results for temperature are sim
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Area Labrador West Central East Sum
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West sees slightly larger winter in
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These increases, though slight, in
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Classification Maximum Sustained Su
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Since air flow around high pressure
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10 9 8 7 6 Total Number of Tropical
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One of the reasons for this increas
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Figure 3-19. Frequency of Named Sto
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Figure 3-21. Change in Mean Sea Lev
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The net long term sea level effect
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Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The AM
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middle of North America as it would
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e a higher incidence of tropical st
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extreme will be considered. Areas t
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Storms weaken rapidly once they mak
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Figure 3-27. Selected Hurricane and
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o o a Category 2 Hurricane making l
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o Because winter temperatures show
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Worst Case Scenarios This section
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5. A hurricane making landfall on t
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Standards Association 21 recommends
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WRMD has defined a preference for h
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The hydrographic network was used t
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4.1.8 Flood History Identification
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Watershed Slope The slope attribute
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such as number of flood events at a
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Deer Lake Placentia Codroy Steady B
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TA1112733 page 109
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5.2 Methods The methodology used fo
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Reported Event Damages Storm# Locat
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Given the reported damages resultin
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Figure 5-3. Storm tracks for select
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natural constrictions. The number a
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5.5.2 Community Exposure to Physica
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Community Number of Events 2011 Pop
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Community Access Notes Confinement
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Brook and Deer Lake are both locate
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Warning Systems 1. It is recommende
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source of flood vulnerabilities com
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Figure 6-2. Newfoundland Digital El
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communities ( Gillams, Hughes Brook
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Sub-region Precipitation Climate Ch
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Analysis of the socio-economic data
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East-2 Coastal communities line nea
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6.2.2 Potential Strategies Table 6-
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6.3 Mitigation Recommendations Base
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Table 6-5 presents the range of ave
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West-3, West-4, and Central-3 These
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Mitigation Strategy Cost to Impleme
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Sub-region Watershed Characteristic
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TA1112733 page 155
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Music and Caya, 2007 Richter and Ba
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http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.htm
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Rank Community Name LGP# 82 Massey
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Rank Community Name LGP# 252 Little
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Rank Community Name LGP# 423 Thornl
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TA1112733 page 167
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FOX ISLAND RIVER-POINT GALLANTS GEO
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GEORGE'S BROOK-MILTON GOOBIES GRAND
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TA1112733 page 173
Page 205 and 206: Flood # Storm # General Location St
Page 253 and 254: 11. Appendix D IDF Curves Report TA
Page 255: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 259 and 260: Development of Projected Intensity-
Page 263 and 264: Storm Duration Development of Proje
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Page 287 and 288: Mean Annual Total Precipoitation, m
Page 289 and 290: Storm Duration Storm Duration Devel
Page 291 and 292: Storm Duration Storm Duration Storm
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Development of Projected Intensity-
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Codroy Valley Watershed Topography
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Parson's Pond Watershed Topography
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Rushoon Watershed: Topography Eleva
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Eastern Watersheds, East Topography
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Eastern 54°0'0"Watersheds, West To
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Central Watersheds, 57°0'0"W East
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Central 58°0'0"W and Western Water
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Badger and Rushy 58°0'0"W Pond Wat
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Cox's Cove Watershed: Land Cover 58
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Ferryland Watershed Land Cover 60°
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49°0'0"N Glenwood-Appleton 56°0'0
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Parson's Pond Watershed: Land Cover
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Rushy Pond Watershed: 57°0'0"WLand
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Stephenville Crossing Watershed: La
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Whitbourne and Brigus Watersheds: L
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Eastern Watersheds 2: Land Cover Ha
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Eastern Watersheds, East: Land Cove
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