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KAIS 2007 1 - Kenya National AIDS & STI Control Programme ...

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DATA IN CONTEXT: APPROACHES TO HIV SURVEILLANCE<strong>National</strong> estimates of HIV prevalence in <strong>Kenya</strong> are estimated using several approaches: 1) generalpopulation-based surveys with HIV testing and 2) annual sentinel surveillance among pregnantwomen attending antenatal clinics (ANCs). Population-based surveys are based on large,nationally representative samples of adult women and men, while ANC surveillance is based on asample of pregnant women attending ANCs considered to be a proxy for the general population.Due to high costs, population-based surveys with HIV testing are conducted, on average, every fiveyears in a country. Therefore, ANC surveillance which is conducted more regularly (every one totwo years) remains an important, cost-effective source of information to monitor HIV prevalencetrends in the population. ANC surveillance data are incorporated into the UN<strong>AIDS</strong> EPP/Spectrummodel and calibrated using data from population-based surveys to arrive at national estimates.According to the modelled estimates, national HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 years hasbeen decreasing from 6.1% in 2004, to 5.9% in 2005 and 5.1% in 2006.In contrast, <strong>Kenya</strong>’s two national populations based surveys with HIV testing suggest that HIVprevalence has remained relatively stable. Among adults aged 15-49 years in the 2003 KDHS, HIVprevalence was 6.7% and not significantly different from the HIV prevalence estimate of 7.4% in the<strong>2007</strong> <strong>KAIS</strong>. The precise reasons for why trends in the modelled estimates are different from thepopulation-based survey estimates require further investigation though a number of factors mayhave played a contributing role. In the EPP/Spectrum model, ANC estimates were calibrated using2003 KDHS data on the female-to-male ratio of HIV prevalence and the rural/urban populationdistribution. However, the <strong>2007</strong> <strong>KAIS</strong> supports important shifts in both of these factors since 2003.In addition, ANC sites may not be representative of the general population. For example, ANCsurveillance has a disproportionately larger number of urban ANC sites compared to rural ANCsites; however, the majority of adults in <strong>Kenya</strong> are living in rural areas. Declining ANC prevalencemay therefore be more reflective of declining urban prevalence among pregnant women. Further, Itis also possible that trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending ANCs differ insome ways from trends in the general population.3.12 GAPS AND UNMET NEEDS• Young women aged 15‐24 years remain especially vulnerable to HIV infection.Further research is needed to assess the factors that contribute to risk ofinfection in the younger population so that effective interventions targetingyouth may be developed and implemented.• Prevalence among rural populations, particularly rural men, increasedbetween 2003 and <strong>2007</strong>. This shift in the HIV epidemic highlights the need forincreased services and programs to these regions.• People with no primary level education and those in the lowest wealth indexquintile have significantly higher HIV prevalence in <strong>2007</strong> than in 2003highlighting the vulnerability of this group. HIV programs should plan toadapt education and behaviour change strategies to reach these groups.<strong>KAIS</strong> <strong>2007</strong> 64

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