Final Report - Asian Development Bank

vi
Project Benefits and
Beneficiaries
The Project benefits target the 20,356 people within the Project Area of
which some 4,593 reside within the CDA zone and a further 15,763 in
the CDA zone. A further 23,405 residents within the immediate fringe of
the Project Area especially those located close to the ex-situ zone will
also benefit. Within the Project Area the poverty ratio is estimated to be
37% on a head count basis or close to 40% on a household basis. Within
the Project area there are significant differences with the level of poverty
in the CDA area being over 70% compared to 23% for the ex-situ zone.
Poverty will be reduced dramatically through (i) significant employment
opportunities during construction, (ii) approximately 1370 full time jobs,
(iii) indirect economic benefits providing services and goods to the influx
of workers and visitors, (iv) access to collective forest land for the 16
villages within the CDA zone, (v) development of Small and medium
enterprises,(vi) development of 10 home stay community tourism
enterprises, (vii) provision of improved mountain pathways and roads,
and social infrastructure programs. For the CDA resident it is expected
that over 90% will benefit directly from the Project.
In the medium term there is an estimated 1.2 million visitors per annum
that add between ½ and 1 day to the average length of stay of tourists
within Shaanxi and Xian in particular. The commercial benefits from
tourism will enable USD $350,000 per annum to be reinvested into
conservation and livelihood programs a figure that is predicted to
increase to well over USD $ 1 million in the medium to longer term.
These funds will add to the Project funded conservation demonstrations
and will increasingly generate conservation benefits through the wider
Qinling Mountains where over 5 million residents currently reside.
Risks and Assumptions Delays of extended construction periods will place significant pressure
on cash flow for the QBG. The SPG has recognized this risk and has
committed to underwrite the cashflow provided the business plan
indicates financial viability.
Technical Assistance
The major risks relate to the capacity of QNBG as an new institution with
little commercial management experience and an unproven
management team. Within the QNBG there lack of past experience in
the QBG to operate large commercial operations with the skill and
acumen that will allow them to compete with other tourism attractions.
Weak management and poor operation of the proposed investments will
threaten the financial viability of the QBG which is currently assessed as
adequate but not strong. The assumed visitation to the QBG site has
been reduced to slightly over 50% of the original proposal but still
represents a major determinant of the overall project success. It is also
assumed that a share of surpluses will be reinvested into CDA
conservation. This will require a legally defined and enforced contract
with each enterprise. The Louguantai Forest Farm has no experience in
the management of conservation forestry and little experience in natural
forest management two of the functions assigned to them.
Risks relating to potential invasive species and poor animal welfare have
been factored into the design of the project through the introduction of
international expertise and the restriction on the Botanical garden to limit
the plant species to those from the Qinling mountain.