Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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8 TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-Qinling Mountains Integrated Ecosystem Management Project Final Report Appendix 13 Table 4: Projected Visitor Numbers per QBG Attraction Attendance 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2035 Total Attendance Growth Rate 350000 391753 433506 475259 517012 725776 1272200 (annual) 11.93% 10.66% 9.63% 8.79% 6.10% 2.50% Paleontology 297500 332990 368480 403970 439460 616910 1081370 Temples 105000 117526 130052 142578 155104 217733 381660 Electric Vehicle 175000 195876 216753 237629 258506 362888 636100 Cableway 105000 117526 130052 142578 155104 217733 381660 Fast Food 105000 117526 130052 142578 155104 217733 381660 Parking��times) 7000 7835 8670 9505 10340 14516 25444 36. The total investment into the QBG is CNY365 million ($48million) for the investment at the 269ha site only see table 5. Item A: Financial Costs Table 5: QBG Investment Costs – (CNY ‘0,000’s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fixed Asset 599.4 24605.3 0.0 1712.5 Civil Works 321.7 21785.3 682.0 Equipments 277.7 2820.0 1030.6 Intangible Asset 5910.8 76.7 131.8 13.8 Total investment 9598.7 24709.5 536.5 1726.3 B: Economic Costs Total investment 5910.8 76.7 131.8 13.8 37. The projected revenues and costs are detailed in Supplementary Appendix15. The summary revenue and cost for the construction period through to 2015 is presented in Table 6 below. Based on the project models and the costs provided by the Enterprise the before tax FIRR is estimated to be 9.5% and the after tax FIRR 8%. The inclusion of the shareholder payment for resettlement compensation reduces the FIRR to 9.07% and 7.45% respectively. Both rates of return are above the WACC and are considered to be viable. The major challenge for the QBG will be cashflow during the construction period – something that the PDRC / PPTA EA has confirmed the Government will underwrite cashflow short falls. 38. The Incorporation of a revenue transfer to the Louguantai Forest Farm Division of QNBG will involve an annual charge of $148,000 in 2012 will reduce the post tax FIRR to 6.8%. Table 6: Forecast Financial Cashflows 2008 to 2015 Item 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-Qinling Mountains Integrated Ecosystem Management Project Final Report Appendix 13 Cash in 0.0 0.0 0.0 3502.6 4586.9 5075.7 5564.6 6053.5 Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 3706.5 4853.8 5371.1 5888.5 6405.8 Sales Tax(5.5%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 203.9 267.0 295.4 323.9 352.3 Residual Value Cash out 9813.2 26738.8 3062.2 4417.2 2693.2 2693.2 3618.7 3561.2 Investment 8889.0 24679.0 539.0 1724.0 Operating cost 831.3 2059.8 2523.2 2693.2 2693.2 2693.2 3618.7 3561.2 Working capital 92.9 Net Cash Flow Before Income Tax -9813.2 -26738.8 -3062.2 -914.5 1893.7 2382.5 1945.9 2492.2 FIRR Before Income Tax 9.52% FNPV Before Income Tax at 10% -2105.2 Income Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 238.0 0.0 265.4 Net Cash Flow After Income Tax -9813.2 -26738.8 -3062.2 -914.5 1893.7 2144.5 1945.9 2226.8 FIRR After Income Tax 8.00% FNPV After Income Tax at 10% -8028.5 39. The financial rates of returns were tested for shifts in both revenue and costs – see Table 7 – and found to be relatively robust, however the assessment suggests that there would be significant benefits from a further critical review of costs to increase the viability and reduce the risk associated with the investment. Table 7: FIRR Sensitivity Analysis Sensitive Analysis Before Income Tax After Income Tax FIRR NPV FIRR NPV Operating Cost (10% up) 8.73% -5775.9 7.23% -11393.5 Operating Cost (10% down) 9.86% -633.1 8.26% -7038.4 Operating Cost (20% down) 10.44% 1938.2 8.79% -4860.9 Revenue (10% down) 8.04% -8507.9 6.60% -13395.9 Revenue (10% up) 10.45% 2098.9 8.80% -5036 Revenue (20% up) 11.54% 7402.3 9.80% -856.1 40. Assuming that it is well designed, well constructed and operated to a high international standard, the ex-situ Botanical Garden is expected to: (i) significantly strengthen and diversify the Shaanxi and Xi’an tourism bases, (ii) attract new tourists to the province and city and further expand tourism revenues through extending the length of stay of some current and projected tourists, (iii) help to promote habitat restoration and improved biodiversity management and conservation in the PA and the wider QM through direct investments in science, research, demonstration and outreach and through the education of visitors on the importance of protecting the QM’s valuable bioresources and ecosystems, and (iv) generate sustainable livelihoods for the PA and target populations through: job creation at the ex-situ site and investments in the in-situ area; purchasing goods and services from PA and target area residents, business enterprises and village groups, and demonstrating how improved biodiversity management can lead to higher and more sustainable livelihoods for PA and wider QM households and villages. 41. The number of direct jobs at the ex-situ QBG site during the Phase I construction period could be a total of 6,000 person years, or an average of about 1,500 per year from 2008 to 2011. After startup, the Botanical Garden will directly employ about 270 people and this number will increase with the advances in attendance. The proportion of local resident employed could be as high as 1.5% at the end of the projection period, while perhaps about 6% of the target area households could benefit from employment at this site. However, policies and programs are needed to ensure that these potential local employment benefits, as well as benefits for local businesses and suppliers, are realized. 9
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Technical Assistance Consultant’s
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as at 1 June
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WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 15 mu = 1 hect
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APPENDIXES (PRESENTED IN SEPARATE V
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LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower P
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Implementation Arrangements The Sha
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Figure 1: Map 1 - The Project Area
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ix Figure 3: Map 3 - Google Image o
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Figure 5: Map 5 - Natural Plant Hab
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Figure 7: Map 7: Shaanxi Louguantai
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II. RATIONALE: SECTOR PERFORMANCE,
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maintain ever-increasing staff leve
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(xiii) lack of national, regional,
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low salaries, poor benefits and ina
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and mature product compared to othe
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into the Province’s tourism indus
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on Land Degradation in Dryland Ecos
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CNY 37million to CNY 64million in 2
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91. Revenue will be generated throu
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100. Improved Village and Forest-ba
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plan budget. Provision for this arr
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Component Sub-component Table 4: Pr
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Table 5: Project Investment Plan ($
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Qinling National Botanical Garden (
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Position Package A: Package A -SARC
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covered in these reports. Within 6
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water supplies, (v) a program to im
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160. Other risks relate to (i) the
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was between CNY 900 and CNY 1156 pe
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183. A major lesson from tourism re
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2 Design Summary Outputs Component
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4 Design Summary Component III: Ins
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6 TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanx
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TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-
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4 Indigenous People 2 TA 4721-PRC:
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GEFSEC PROJECT ID: EA PROJECT ID: C
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i) Tourism 5. One of the strongest
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14. Poor rural households had few o
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and fauna due in large part to the
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31. The Qinling Mountain ecosystem
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continuing communication among stak
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development under construction, (v)
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) Objective 50. The impact of the p
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60. The current animal rescue and e
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Source (PPTA Estimates) 69. The rev
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77. Institutional Strengthening The
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awareness and understanding of mark
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92. The main risk to the Project’
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modify the drivers of biodiversity
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Expected Project National Biodivers
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Strategic Objectives and Indicative
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after 5 years. It is suggested that
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the lessons from the Project. All m
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119. The SPG commitment is demonstr
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130. In output 1, GEF financing of
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Tracking Tool for GEF Biodiversity
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the current tourism portfolio. This
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Please answer YES or NO to each sta
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Ecological Function Conservation Ar
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ADB TA 4271 Shaanxi Qinling Biodive
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3 ADB TA 4271 Shaanxi Qinling Biodi
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11 ADB TA 4271 Shaanxi Qinling Biod
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