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Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-Qinling Mountains Integrated Ecosystem Management Project<br />

<strong>Final</strong> <strong>Report</strong> Appendix 7<br />

10. Equipment and Instruments<br />

11. Vehicles<br />

12. Marketing and Public Education<br />

13. Staff Costs (Recurrent) – about 1.3% of base costs<br />

14. Technical Training<br />

15. Technical Consultancy<br />

16. Design and Surveying at about 2% of Construction and Engineering Costs<br />

17. Administration<br />

18. Detailed Design Costs<br />

Notes to Table 11:<br />

1. Recurrent costs are included in the SARC construction costs as staff costs. After 2010, based on the<br />

SARC financial projections, operating costs, including maintenance and overheads, will be covered by<br />

SARC revenues.<br />

d. Revenue Projections and Financial Analysis<br />

205. The projected attendance figures are based upon the assumptions in Table 12 and include a<br />

10% factor for nonpaying or official visitors due to the iconic nature of giant Panda and the Crested<br />

Ibis.<br />

Table 12: Assumptions for Visitor and Revenue Projections<br />

The attendance for the three attraction in 2011 is 280,000.<br />

In the first 5 year period from 2011 to 2016, the annual growth rate peaks and decreases gradually.<br />

The attendance of Crested Ibis in 2010 is 266,000.<br />

10 % of tourists will be free guests<br />

Panda Entry Fee 55 CNY<br />

Crested Ibis Entry Fee 50 CNY<br />

Golden Monkey Entry Fee 30 CNY<br />

206. The SARC Design Team projects attendance to start at a fairly low level and then to grow<br />

quite rapidly through the early years of the projection period. Therefore, this attendance forecast is<br />

used for the analysis. However the SARC prices were adjusted downward to be consistent with<br />

market studies to be consistent with market research and to provide a conservative base to the overall<br />

assessment. The SARC strategy envisages that all visitors to the SARC Animal Exhibition Center/Zoo<br />

would also visit the breeding centers for the three species and the animal exposition center. Visitation<br />

numbers are presented in Table 13.<br />

Attendance<br />

Table 13: ARC Visitor and Revenue Projection<br />

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Attendance 280,000.0 336,000.0 403,200.0 463,680.0 519,321.6<br />

Growth Rate Yearly 20% 20% 15% 12%<br />

Panda 280,000.0 336,000.0 403,200.0 463,680.0 519,321.6<br />

Crested Ibis 266,000.0 280,000.0 336,000.0 403,200.0 463,680.0 519,321.6<br />

Golden Monkey 336,000.0 403,200.0 463,680.0 519,321.6<br />

Revenue (‘0,000)<br />

Panda (CNY50/ person) 1,386.0 1,663.2 1,995.8 2,295.2 2,570.6<br />

Crested Ibis�CNY50 /person� 1,197.0 1,260.0 1,512.0 1,814.4 2,086.6 2,336.9<br />

Golden Monkey (CNY30/person� 0.0 907.2 1,088.6 1,251.9 1,402.2<br />

Total 1,197.0 2,646.0 4,082.4 4,898.9 5,633.7 6,309.8<br />

35

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