Final Report - Asian Development Bank

14
TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-Qinling Mountains Integrated Ecosystem Management Project
Final Report Appendix 13
58. Over the longer term, strong national and international interest in iconic Qinling animals such
as giant Panda, Crested Ibis and Golden Monkey and SARC’s growing reputation for the rescue, care,
breeding and release of these animals and for operating a well-known Animal Exhibition Area and
Rescue Center to international standards. This reputation will generate significant funds from
international NGOs and other donors (corporations, foundations etc.) to support the animal rescue
center’s future activities and development. The project will provide technical support for the design
process to ensure that the skills and experience within SARC and the international community are
brought to bear on the detailed design.
59. The economic cash flow for the period through to 2015 is presented in Table 15 which results
in an EIRR of 17.9% based on the net cash flow for the with and without project. In reality the current
center would be unlikely to survive past the short term given the low standards of animal welfare and
the increasing public rejection of these standards.
Table 15: Economic Analysis of SARC Proposal
Item 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash in
0 0 1197 2646 4082 4899 5634 6310
Revenue
Residual Value
0.0 0.0 1197.0 2646.0 4082.4 4898.9 5633.7 6309.8
Cash out 3401.0 8220.5 11925.2 2432.2 2009.0 2009.0 2367.1 2345.2
Investment 2378.3 6635.3 10077.0 503.7
Operating cost
Working capital
1022.7 1585.2 1848.2 1928.5 2009.0 2009.0 2367.1 2345.2
Net Cash Flow Before Income Tax -3401.0 -8220.5 -10728.2 213.8 2073.4 2889.9 3266.6 3964.6
Cash in without project 218.9 218.9 218.9 218.9 218.9 218.9 218.9 218.9
Cash out without project 185.7 185.7 185.7 185.7 185.7 185.7 185.7 185.7
Net Cash Flow without project 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.2
Net Cash Flow -3434.2 -8253.7 -10761.4 180.6 2040.2 2856.7 3233.4 3931.3
EIRR 17.86%
ENPV (10%) 22965.8
60. The EIRR was found to be robust up to 30% movement in either the costs or revenue streams
and as such given he conservative visitor numbers the investment as forecast is considered
economically feasible.
Table 16: Sensitivity of Economic Analysis
Sensitive Analysis
EIRR ENPV
Operating Cost (10% up) 16.33% 20149.4
Operating Cost (20% up) 15.69% 18314.8