Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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18 TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-Qinling Mountains Integrated Ecosystem Management Project Final Report Appendix 13 Cash in 0 2640 2640 2640 2640 2640 2640 2640 Revenue 0 2794 2794 2794 2794 2794 2794 2794 Sales Tax(5.5%) Residual Value 0 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 Cash out 6766 1663 1644 1644 1644 1644 1787 1778 Investment 6478 0 0 0 Operating cost 288 1663 1644 1644 1644 1644 1787 1778 Net Cash Flow Before Income Tax -6766 977 996 996 996 996 853 861 FIRR Before Income Tax 13.67% FNPV Before Income Tax at 10% 1916 Income Tax 0 157 162 162 162 162 126 128 Net Cash Flow After Income Tax -6766 820 834 834 834 834 727 734 FIRR After Income Tax 10.90% FNPV After Income Tax at 10% 450 74. The FIRR is however quite sensitive to changes in costs or incomes suggesting that the Project needs to be closely assessed in terms of the assumptions that are applied. Central to these are (i) the construction period and the need to avoid delays, (ii) the occupancy early in the project life, (iii) demand for the day visitation services. Table 22: Hot Spring Financial Analysis Sensitivity Sensitive Analysis Before Income Tax After Income Tax FIRR NPV FIRR NPV Operating Cost (10% up) 10.89% 460 8.67% -649 Operating Cost (20% up) 8.03% -997 6.34% -1748 Operating Cost (30% up) 5.00% -2453 3.83% -2846 Revenue (10% down) 9.37% -317 7.44% -1225 Revenue (20% down) 4.68% -2551 3.57% -2900 Revenue (30% down) -1.06% -4784 -1.24% -4575 75. The Economic analysis is however somewhat stronger with a EIRR of 23.33 % suggesting a very good investment. Economically the investment is relatively insensitive to changes in revenues and costs – see Tables 23 and 24. Cash in Table 23: Economic Forecast for Hot Springs (CNY 0,000) Item 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revenue 0 2794 2794 2794 2794 2794 2794 2794 Residual Value Cash out 5587 1531 1512 1512 1512 1512 1655 1647 Investment 5299 0 0 0
TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-Qinling Mountains Integrated Ecosystem Management Project Final Report Appendix 13 Operating cost 288 1531 1512 1512 1512 1512 1655 1647 Net Cash Flow -5587 1262 1281 1281 1281 1281 1138 1147 EIRR 22.11% ENPV 5400 Table 24: Economic Sensitivity Analysis Sensitive Analysis EIRR ENPV Operating Cost (10% up) 20.19% 4312 Operating Cost (20% up) 17.05% 2967 Operating Cost (30% up) 13.88% 1622 Operating Cost (40% up) 10.67% 277 Operating Cost (50% up) 7.36% -1068 Revenue (10% down) 17.88% 3293 Revenue (20% down) 12.28% 950 Revenue (30% down) 6.29% -1434 c. Component Summary – Economic Assessment 76. Component one has an overall EIRR of 14.2% estimated from the assumptions described above for each of the subcomponents – see table 25. These benefits do not include the intangible benefits linked to species conservation, awareness and education, and the scientific knowledge to be developed from the QBG and SARC. Table 25: Component One Economic NCF and EIRR Subcomponent NCF 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Qinling Botanic Garden -9302 -24346 -2935 -353 2181 2698 2218 2796 SARC -3434 -8254 -10761 181 2040 2857 3233 3931 Hotsprings -5587 1262 1281 1281 1281 1281 1138 1147 Component One NCF -18323 -31337 -12415 1109 5503 6837 6589 7875 EIRR Component One 14.19% 77. The beneficiaries include the domestic and international tourists who visit the tourism sites and enjoy the facilities and services and learning more about the Qinling Mountain’s bioresources, history, culture and religions. By 2011, once the first phases of the QBG and SARC and the second phase of the Hot Springs are completed, the total number of tourists visiting the PA will be about 700,000 10 , compared with about 300,000 at the present time. With completion of all phases of the three ex-situ enterprises, the total number of visitors to the tourism facilities would approach 1.8 million and could be over 2.3 million by 2030. 78. The target beneficiaries within the Project Area target area people who receive jobs generated by the construction of the Project investments and the operating jobs after construction after construction. The following provides employment estimates from the construction and operation stages of the Project based on estimates provided in the FSRs. 10 This number takes account of the number of visitors who are expected to visit two or even all three ex-situ sites in one day. Actual attendance counts when the three sites are combined together would therefore be higher. 19
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Technical Assistance Consultant’s
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as at 1 June
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WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 15 mu = 1 hect
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APPENDIXES (PRESENTED IN SEPARATE V
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LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower P
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Implementation Arrangements The Sha
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Figure 1: Map 1 - The Project Area
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ix Figure 3: Map 3 - Google Image o
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Figure 5: Map 5 - Natural Plant Hab
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Figure 7: Map 7: Shaanxi Louguantai
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II. RATIONALE: SECTOR PERFORMANCE,
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maintain ever-increasing staff leve
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(xiii) lack of national, regional,
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low salaries, poor benefits and ina
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and mature product compared to othe
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into the Province’s tourism indus
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on Land Degradation in Dryland Ecos
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CNY 37million to CNY 64million in 2
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91. Revenue will be generated throu
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100. Improved Village and Forest-ba
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plan budget. Provision for this arr
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Component Sub-component Table 4: Pr
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Table 5: Project Investment Plan ($
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Qinling National Botanical Garden (
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Position Package A: Package A -SARC
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covered in these reports. Within 6
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water supplies, (v) a program to im
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160. Other risks relate to (i) the
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was between CNY 900 and CNY 1156 pe
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183. A major lesson from tourism re
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2 Design Summary Outputs Component
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4 Design Summary Component III: Ins
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6 TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanx
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TA 4721-PRC: Preparing the Shaanxi-
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4 Indigenous People 2 TA 4721-PRC:
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Page 391 and 392: i) Tourism 5. One of the strongest
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continuing communication among stak
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development under construction, (v)
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) Objective 50. The impact of the p
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60. The current animal rescue and e
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Source (PPTA Estimates) 69. The rev
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77. Institutional Strengthening The
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awareness and understanding of mark
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92. The main risk to the Project’
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modify the drivers of biodiversity
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Expected Project National Biodivers
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Strategic Objectives and Indicative
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after 5 years. It is suggested that
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the lessons from the Project. All m
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119. The SPG commitment is demonstr
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130. In output 1, GEF financing of
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Tracking Tool for GEF Biodiversity
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the current tourism portfolio. This
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Please answer YES or NO to each sta
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Ecological Function Conservation Ar
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ADB TA 4271 Shaanxi Qinling Biodive
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3 ADB TA 4271 Shaanxi Qinling Biodi
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11 ADB TA 4271 Shaanxi Qinling Biod
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Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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