and Integrated Pest Management - part - usaid

RICE INSECISURVEILLANCIH AND FORECASTING 57
material such as "Fujitangle" or "Tanglcfoot". The paper is then covered with a
piece of clear polythene and brought back to the laboratory for counting.
The relative methods include light traps, yellow pan traps, sticky traps,
sweep nets and aerial nets. In many rice pest surveillance programs, light traps
are commonly used. Despite controversy over its reliability, it is by far the
most convenient method available.
In the case of insects that cause visible symptoms, such as stem borers, gall
midge, leaf folders and whorl maggots, direct counts of the hills with the
symptoms are often the most convenient. Visual scores of insect damage
ranging from 0 (no damage) to 9 (severely damaged) can be easily adopted by
farmers. Though used successfully in disease assessments (Teng 1984), the
difficulty lies in standardizing these scores, which can differ from observer iv
observer.
PEST INFORMATION AS AN AID TO DECISION MAKING
Historical Information
Information synthesized from historical data can serve to enhance both
tactical and planning decisions. Mean populations over a number of years are
being used as guides to decide whether action is needed (Hirao 1979). The
probability distribution of attacks obtained using cross classification analysis can
provide decision makers with some idea on whether action would be needed
(Norton 1976). This can also form the basis for the application of decision
theory to aid in decision making (Carlson 1970, Hcong 1983, Valentine et al.
1976). In Canada, infestation probabilities and economic consequences of
grasshoppers were derived using pest, weather, and crop data over a 32-year
period (Gage & Mukerji 1978). Migration patterns of the rice brown
planthopper in Japan (Kisimoto 1976), China (Cheng et al. 1979) and Southeast
Asia (Rosenberg & Magor 1986) bave been established from historical records.
Real-Time Information
Real-time information is required for making short-term
T!.As is
tactical
usually
decisions.
collected through field monitoring. In order to be
processing
effective,
needs
data
to be fast and efficient. The microcomputer-based
surveillance
pest
system discussed earlier, each with an independent
management
database
system (DBMS) will serve this purpose effectively.
systems
Several
in the United States are based on mainframe computers
in New
such
York
as
(Sarette
SCAMP
et al. 1979), PMEX in Michigan (Tummala
1977)
& Haynes
and MINPEST in Minnesota (Teng 1984). The development
other
of these
computer-based
and
IPM delivery systems were reviewed by Welch (1984) and
Tummala and Gage (1985).
Monitoring data can also be converted into real-time information
other
by several
means, such as using a set of decision rules, a sequential
(Ho
sampling
& Heong
plan
1984, Shepard et al. 1986), a graph (Conway et al. 1975, Heong