The Quest for Relevant Air Power

84 │ French Air Force
the previous reforms, stated that the Armed Forces Model 2015 had
been too ambitious and that a reform was necessary. 10
Threat and Risk Perception. In 1990 French decision makers
only hesitantly modified their threat perception, particularly compared
to their counterparts in the United States and the United
Kingdom. According to the French view, although the threat of a
massive surprise attack seemed to have vanished, the Soviet Union
still posed a threat due to its vast arsenal of conventional and unconventional
weapons. Only after the failed coup in Moscow in
mid-1991 did French officials seriously start to acknowledge the
demise of the Soviet/Russian threat. 11
With the 1994 Defence White Book, French threat and risk perception
had further adjusted to post–Cold War realities. Regional
conflicts were considered to destabilise global stability, and the
fragmentation of the Soviet Union was observed with great concern,
particularly regarding nuclear proliferation. Moreover, nonmilitary
threats and risks received considerable appreciation in
the White Book. Among these, terrorism was singled out as the
most substantial. 12
The view that the distinction between internal and external security
had blurred was accentuated in the wake of 11 September.
According to the security assessment as laid out in the military
planning law for 2003–8, a new form of terrorism had emerged.
Consequently, the vulnerability of French society had to be taken
into account in all its dimensions. Moreover, it was assumed that
the threat potential of failing states and WMD proliferation had
increased further. 13
The 2008 White Book expanded these security concerns by emphasising
the phenomenon of globalisation, ushering in an era of
strategic uncertainty. While acknowledging the positive aspects of
globalisation, the White Book underlines several security concerns
caused by a more globalised environment. It stresses the issue of
energy and resource security and identifies increased military
spending—particularly in India and China, as well as a reasserting
Russia—as a potentially destabilising factor. 14 Given all these developments,
the White Book concludes that France and Europe are in a
more vulnerable situation now than at the end of the Cold War. 15
Tasks of the Armed Forces. The end of the Cold War made a
conceptual realignment of the tasks of the French armed forces