The Quest for Relevant Air Power

14 │ POST–COLD WAR CHALLENGES
state conflicts. 2 Philip Sabin points out that concurrently, conflicts
have become more asymmetric due to factors including the demise
of bipolarity in international affairs; Western military superiority,
especially in air power; and differing levels of commitment
and ruthlessness. 3
Ethnic clashes and crisis interventions have not been the only
concerns for the international community. By the end of the 1990s,
the nuclear non-proliferation regime had obviously suffered serious
setbacks. 4 Moreover, at the dawn of the new century, the 11
September attacks brought international terrorism prominently
onto the international agenda. These events also had far-reaching
consequences on the non-proliferation front, as the United States
extended the war against global terrorism to so-called rogue regimes,
trying to draw a connection between weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) terrorism and Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. 5
To sum up, developments during the post–Cold War era have
led to increased uncertainty and instability in many parts of the
world. Due to globalisation, regional tensions and conflicts generate
ripple effects that influence apparently secure Western states.
Traditional concepts of national security have proven inadequate
to deal with today’s contingencies. Territorial defence is no longer
deemed an effective strategy in an interconnected world.
Changing Paradigms for Defence Planning. Whereas the
Cold War was dominated by nuclear deterrence and preparations
for a symmetric large-scale war in Continental Europe, the post–
Cold War era has required a different approach. Latent or future
threats—so-called risks—superseded present and direct threats as
key determinants of defence policy in the 1990s. With an attendant
loss of predictability, a conceptual realignment of the paradigms
for defence planning became necessary. 6
At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union was still viewed as
a continuing security threat chiefly because of instability within
the Soviet Union itself. 7 Therefore, the possibility of a renewed
confrontation with Soviet or Russian military power could not be
entirely discarded. Very early, however, it was recognised that future
security challenges were more likely to stem from regional
conflicts in the Balkans, the Middle East, or elsewhere. 8 The altered
security context thus led to force reductions among NATO
states in the early 1990s as well as an increasing requirement for