UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT

East and Central Africa
Figure 19.1: Top 12 crude oil-producing countries
in Africa, 2014
Nigeria
Angola
Algeria
Egypt
Libya
Equatorial Guinea
Congo, Rep
Sudan
South Sudan
Gabon
Ghana
Chad
Source: www.eia.gov
269
267
262
262
240
106
103
516
661
Estimated barrels per day (’000s)
1 756
1 721
2 427
South Sudan’s economic fortunes have been largely tied
to its oil exports, which in turn have fluctuated wildly due
to internal unrest and according to the state of political
relations with neighbouring Sudan, through which its export
pipeline runs. Over the past year, Equatorial Guinea has had
to contend with stagnant world oil prices which have held
its own GDP in check.
Ethiopia has been the shining star in the region, maintaining
its double-digit growth rate over the past few years. Uganda
has been another strong performer, although its growth
seems to have been somewhat stunted by the slow global
recovery from the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Eritrea has
made some of the biggest gains, having managed to turn
negative growth prior to 2010 into a 4.8% average ever
since. On the whole, it does not appear as if the global crisis
has had a major lasting impact on economies in the region,
although the slowing-down of the Chinese economy since
2014 is a potential cause for concern for resource-exporting
countries.
Regional integration can favour development
Most countries in East and Central Africa are still in the early
stages of transition from traditional agrarian to modern
industrial economies, as evidenced by the generally large
contribution of agriculture to GDP (Figure 19.2). Agriculture
even contributes more than half of GDP in Central African
Republic, Chad and Sierra Leone. Notable exceptions to the
rule are the Republic of Congo and Gabon, where the oil
industry dwarfs all other economic activities.
Public spending on agriculture tends to be fairly low, at
less than 5% of GDP for most countries (Table 19.2). This
has obvious implications for expenditure on agricultural
R&D as a subset of the total. So far, only three countries
have reached the target in the Maputo Declaration (2003) of
devoting 10% of GDP to agriculture: Burundi (10%), Niger
(13%) and Ethiopia (21%). The large proportion of the working
population employed in agriculture is another indicator of
these countries’ levels of development. The lack of economic
diversification handicaps both agrarian and fossil-fuel based
economies, as they tend to be heavily dependent on natural
resources for foreign exchange, in particular.
Public expenditure on health is low in most countries, the
exceptions being Burundi (4.4% of GDP), Djibouti (5.3%)
and Rwanda (6.5%) in 2013. These same three countries also
accord a high priority to education (more than 5% of GDP), as
do Comoros (7.6% in 2008), the Republic of Congo (6.2% in
2010) and Kenya (6.7% in 2010).
Military expenditure tends to account for less than 2% of GDP
in the region, with the notable exception of Chad (2.0% in
2011), Burundi (2.2% in 2013), Central African Republic
(2.6% in 2010), Djibouti (3.6% in 2008), Equatorial Guinea (4.0%
in 2009) and, above all, South Sudan (9.3% in 2012) [Table 19.2].
The credibility of political institutions and election outcomes
remains a major challenge. Owing to instability and
governance challenges in East Africa, the region was the
continent’s lowest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI)
in 2008 and 2009. In 2013, FDI flowed most abundantly into
the economies of Djibouti (19.6% of GDP), the Republic of
Congo (14.5%) and Equatorial Guinea (12.3%). Whereas the
oil industry was the main pole of attraction in the latter two
countries, FDI flowed mostly into Djibouti’s port area, which
is strategically located on trade routes to the Middle East.
The region’s resource potential is expected to attract greater
FDI flows in future. Potential areas for investment include
oil and mineral exploration in Chad, Ethiopia, Sudan and
Uganda, intensified economic and business reforms led by
Rwanda and large infrastructure projects, such as the ongoing
construction of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam and the
development of geothermal energy in Kenya (see p. 524).
Intraregional trade is important for many small or landlocked
East and Central African economies but it is severely hindered
by the poor state of transport infrastructure. A major
challenge will be to develop railway and road linkages to
ports, so as to better connect countries with one another and
the global economy.
Regional integration offers one means of addressing the
challenges outlined above. Political co-operation is just as
essential as economic co-operation, however, in order to
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