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UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Japan needs to adopt forward-looking policies ... and to pursue the necessary reforms to adapt to the changing global landscape. Yasushi Sato and Tateo Arimoto ASIMO is the culmination of two decades of humanoid robotics research by Honda engineers. ASIMO can run, walk on uneven slopes and surfaces, turn smoothly, climb stairs and reach for and grasp objects. ASIMO can also comprehend and respond to simple voice commands. ASIMO has the ability to recognize the face of a select group of individuals. Using its camera eyes, ASIMO can map its environment and register stationary objects. ASIMO can also avoid moving obstacles as it moves through its environment. Photo: © http://asimo.honda.com 642
24 . Japan Yasushi Sato and Tateo Arimoto INTRODUCTION Two turning points in Japanese politics Twice, Japan has experienced a political turning point in the past decade. The first came in August 2009, with the electoral defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had dominated Japanese politics for over half a century. Frustrated by the LDP’s failure to shake Japan out of a two decade-long economic slump, Japanese voters placed their hopes in the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Three prime ministers followed in quick succession, none of whom succeeded in rebooting the economy. Twenty-one months after the Great East Japan Earthquake triggered a tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011, disillusioned voters returned the LDP to power in the December 2012 general election. The new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, put in place a set of extraordinarily active fiscal and economic policies which have been dubbed Abenomics. After news emerged that Japan had officially slipped into recession following an increase in taxation on consumption, the prime minister called a snap election in December 2014 to consult the public on whether or not to pursue Abenomics. His party won a landslide victory. Long-term challenges: an ageing society and economic stagnation Although Abenomics has helped Japan to recover from recession in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008, the nation’s underlying problems remain. Japan’s population peaked in 2008 before embarking on a gradual decline. As the proportion of seniors in the nation’s population has surged, Japan has become the world’s most aged society, even if the fertility rate did rise somewhat between 2005 and 2013, from 1.26 to 1.43 children per woman. The combination of a sluggish economy and ageing society has necessitated the mobilization of increasingly massive government expenditure, especially for social security. The share of accumulated total government debt in GDP exceeded 200% in 2011 and has since continued to climb (Table 24.1). To help service this debt, the Japanese government raised the tax on Japan consumption from 5% to 8% in April 2014. The Abe cabinet then decided to postpone raising this tax further to 10% until April 2017, citing Japan’s weak economic performance. The current fiscal situation is clearly unsustainable. Whereas government expenditure on social security rose steadily from 2008 to 2013 at an average annual rate of 6.0%, total national revenue barely progressed. In May 2014, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that Japan raise its consumption tax rate to at least 15%. This figure is still much lower than in most European nations but it would be very difficult to implement the IMF’s recommendation in Japan, as most people, especially seniors, would overwhelmingly vote against any party responsible for such a decision. At the same time, the Japanese would also resist any drop in the current level of public service, which is characterized by costefficient, hospitable and universal health care, fair and reliable public education and trusted police and judicial systems. Politicians have thus been able to do little to contrary the rapidly widening gap between revenue and expenditure. Under such extraordinary fiscal pressure, the government has indeed tried hard to streamline public expenditure. The defence budget remained roughly constant from 2008 to 2013, although it was then moderately augmented as attention focused on changing geopolitical circumstances in Asia. Spending on public works was radically cut back by the DPJ administration but increased again after the Great East Japan Earthquake, especially under the Abe administration. The budget for education shrank constantly from 2008 to 2013, with the notable exception of DPJ’s flagship policy of making secondary school education free of charge, introduced in 2010. After expanding constantly for years, the budget for the promotion of science and technology (S&T) went into reverse. Although the government still sees S&T as a key driver of innovation and economic growth, the combination of limited revenue and rising expenditure for social security does not bode well for public support of S&T in Japan. In the private sector, too, investment in research and development (R&D) has dropped since the global financial Chapter 24 Table 24.1: Socio-economic indicators for Japan, 2008 and 2013 Year GDP growth, volume (%) Population (millions) Share of population aged 65 years and above (%) Government debt as a share of GDP (%)* 2008 -1.0 127.3 21.6 171.1 2013 1.5 127.1 25.1 224.2 *General government gross financial liabilities Source: OECD (2014) Economic Outlook No.96; IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2014; for population data: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs 643
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UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Towards 2030
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Published in 2015 by the United Nat
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Report team Director of the Publica
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Foreword Irina Bokova, Director-Gen
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Table S10: Scientific publications
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UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Data obtained
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UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT

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