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The Economic Consequences of Homelessness in The US

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Sobol sequences. In these techniques, by us<strong>in</strong>g an assumed probability distribution <strong>of</strong><br />

future <strong>in</strong>terest rates, numerous (10,000–100,000 or even 1,000,000) possible <strong>in</strong>terest<br />

rate scenarios are explored, mortgage cash flows calculated under each, and aggregate<br />

parameters like fair value and effective <strong>in</strong>terest rate over the life <strong>of</strong> the mortgage are<br />

estimated.<br />

Hav<strong>in</strong>g these at hand, lend<strong>in</strong>g analysts determ<strong>in</strong>e whether <strong>of</strong>fer<strong>in</strong>g a particular<br />

mortgage would be pr<strong>of</strong>itable, and if it would represent tolerable risk to the bank.<br />

Prepayment<br />

Adjustable rate mortgages, like other types <strong>of</strong> mortgage, usually allow the borrower to<br />

prepay pr<strong>in</strong>cipal (or capital) early without penalty. Early payments <strong>of</strong> part <strong>of</strong> the pr<strong>in</strong>cipal<br />

will reduce the total cost <strong>of</strong> the loan (total <strong>in</strong>terest paid), but will not shorten the amount<br />

<strong>of</strong> time needed to pay <strong>of</strong>f the loan like other loan types.<br />

Upon each recast<strong>in</strong>g, the new fully <strong>in</strong>dexed <strong>in</strong>terest rate is applied to the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

pr<strong>in</strong>cipal to end with<strong>in</strong> the rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g term schedule.<br />

If a mortgage is ref<strong>in</strong>anced, the borrower simultaneously takes out a new mortgage and<br />

pays <strong>of</strong>f the old mortgage; the latter counts as a prepayment.<br />

Some ARMs charge prepayment penalties <strong>of</strong> several thousand dollars if the borrower<br />

ref<strong>in</strong>ances the loan or pays it <strong>of</strong>f early, especially with<strong>in</strong> the first three or five years <strong>of</strong><br />

the loan.<br />

Page 229 <strong>of</strong> 289

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