Mainly on the Elbe River - Central Europe

Chart 39 - Required transport increase of railway and road transport volumes (%) with regard to
the capacity reserve of the railway network in Germany
monitored years 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
railway 56,6 54,8 55,8 57,9 61,6 66,1 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3
road 43,9 42,5 43,3 45,0 47,8 55,1 61,7 67,1 71,3 75,0 78,1
monitored years 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
railway 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3
road 80,8 83,1 84,9 86,4 88,0 89,1 89,8 90,3 90,7 91,1 91,3
Source: CityPlan, spol. s r. o.
The road capacity is expected to be exceeded around the year 2026. The only acceptable
solution is utilization of the Elbe waterway in the section with unlimited navigation draft (the
guaranteed draft in Germany is 1,4 m). The last port in a direction towards CR well connected to
railway network is Dresden. The capacity reserve revealed for the route Dresden – Děčín – further
to the CR is about 20 % (in 2008). As 10 % of railway network capacity will be exceeded (the
maximum for the Rhein region), capacity remaining for utilization on the section to Dresden is 10
%. Exploiting this alternative would lower the share of unsatisfied demand (with the road transport
still increased “only” by 50 % in 2050) but only at the cost of significant decrease of transportation
speed and increase of transportation costs (there is inverse ratio between a transport price and
distance + additional overload). Therefore, transport demand would probably not be satisfied while
cumulating road congestions with all their negative consequences.
If we admit maximum increase of road transport by 50 %, the transport development will be
following:
Chart 40 - real railway and road transport increase (%)
The growth in transportation volume reduced by capacity possibilities of networks
monitored years 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
railway 56,6 54,8 55,8 57,9 61,6 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3
road 43,9 42,5 43,3 45,0 47,8 55,1 61,7 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0
monitored years 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
railway 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3 62,3
road 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0 66,0
Source: CityPlan, spol. s r. o.
4.5.2.5 Option with the Děčín navigable lock constructed
Until commissioning the Děčín navigable lock, development of transport is consistent with the
zero option. The navigable lock is expected to operate since the year 2016. The transported
volumes would then gradually grow. Full utilization of the waterway would be realized only after
capacity of road and railway transport is exceeded, i.e. after the year 2018. To assess the future
loads, the medium option of foreseen development of transport volumes is selected with regard
to navigable days to Střekov and navigable days for loading and unloading in Děčín.
A feasibility study for “Improvement of Conditions for the River Transport in Central Europe (mainly on the Elbe
River)“ realized within the ChemLog project 164