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Proceedings of the 10th International Colloquium on Paratuberculosis

Proceedings of the 10th International Colloquium on Paratuberculosis

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#145 MERKAL AWARD LECTURE<br />

Multinomial regressi<strong>on</strong> analysis <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> individual host factors and paratuberculosis test results<br />

Franziska Gierke, Mario Ziller, Heike Köhler<br />

Institute <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Molecular Pathogenesis, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health,<br />

Germany; Institute <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health,<br />

Germany<br />

Objective: Individual factors and paratuberculosis test results <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> infected cattle were integrated in a multinomial<br />

regressi<strong>on</strong> analysis to detect <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> most powerful animal influences <strong>on</strong> fecal and serological test results.<br />

Materials and Methods: 1.313 animals from 2 dairy cattle herds (A and B) were examined for fecal<br />

shedding <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> MAP by cultivati<strong>on</strong> and c<strong>on</strong>firmati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> MAP by IS900-PCR as described before*. Culture results <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

infected animals were assigned to 3 groups: high, medium-low and low-no shedding. Blood and milk samples<br />

were tested with 2 paratuberculosis-ELISA-tests (n<strong>on</strong>absorbed/LAM ELISA 1; absorbed ELISA 2). For <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

statistical analysis with <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> s<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>tware R (Versi<strong>on</strong> 2.4.0; http://www.r-project.org) test results and host factors<br />

were grouped in classes. Reference groups were selected randomly for <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> multinomial regressi<strong>on</strong> analysis.<br />

Results: Significant animal influences <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> detecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> high shedding were not established. The highest<br />

probability for medium-low shedding occurred during <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> 3rd lactati<strong>on</strong> stage (211-315d). The most powerful<br />

influences for <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> detecti<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> positive ELISA 1 blood or milk test results were animal age and a high intensity<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> shedding. A significantly higher chance for a positive ELISA 1 milk test result was detected in herd B. High<br />

daily milk yields (> 45 kg) were negatively associated with positive ELISA 1 milk test results. The occurrence<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> positive ELISA 2 blood and milk test results increased significantly when medium or high fecal shedding<br />

was detected simultaneously. ELISA 2 milk test results were less <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>ten positive when milk yields > 35 kg were<br />

recorded.<br />

C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>: High shedders can be detected irrespective <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> examined individual factors. There is a<br />

high probability to detect medium-low fecal shedders during <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> 3rd lactati<strong>on</strong> stage. <strong>Paratuberculosis</strong>-ELISAtest<br />

results were modified by individual host factors. Particularly <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> negative associati<strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> high milk yields<br />

and milk ELISA-test results should be taken into account when milk ELISA-tests are used for herd examinati<strong>on</strong>s.<br />

* Gierke, F., M. Ziller, H. Köhler (2007): Can <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> detecti<strong>on</strong> rate <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> faecal shedders <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> MAP be increased by<br />

optimising <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> time point <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> faecal sampling? Proc. 9ICP, Tsukuba, Japan, 107-110<br />

149

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