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200 � Transportation Statistics Annual Report 1996 BOX 8-6 (cont’d): PORTLAND, OREGON: EXPLORING THE TRANSPORTATION/LAND-USE LINK One of the main tasks of the project was to compare the projected transportation behavior and emissions under the LUTRAQ proposal with what would be expected if the Western Bypass were constructed. Some estimates for travel behavior effects are presented in table 1. Here LUTRAQ I and LUTRAQ II refer to the plan with and without the financial incentives, respectively. It is interesting to note that the difference in mode share between the Bypass scenario and the LUTRAQ scenario is highly dependent on the inclusion of financial incentives. The analysis also indicates that the LUTRAQ option results in a reduction in vmt and trips, but an increase in peak vehicle-hours of delay. The LUTRAQ project shows that land-use planning and other transportation control measures can be used together to identify and plan potentially viable alternatives to major transportation infrastructure expansion. The expected changes in travel behavior are, however, relatively minor in light of the extensive land-use changes proposed under the plan. 4 While LUTRAQ was only a demonstration research project, at least some of the land-use and transportation principles that it endorsed are being adopted in the Portland metropolitan region. Portland was a marginal nonattainment area for ozone, and a moderate nonattainment area for carbon monoxide (CO). Federal emissions standards, along with local initiatives for vapor recovery and vehicle inspection have now brought the region into maintenance status for both pollutants. Given a projected annual growth rate of 2.2 percent for vmt, emissions are expected to increase by the end of the decade. In response to the danger that Portland would be unable to maintain attainment TABLE 1: MODE SHARES UNDER WESTERN BYPASS AND LUTRAQ SCENARIOS status, a state task force devised a plan to reduce emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) by 37.1 percent and 20.6 percent, respectively, by the year 2007 (these are reductions from projected emissions under federal emissions restrictions). Some of the reductions would be achieved by requiring pedestrian-, bicycle-, and transit-friendly land use for all new construction. The majority of the projected 4 Genevieve Giuliano, “The Weakening Transportation-Land Use Connection,” Access, vol. 6, 1995, pp. 3–11. Mode share (percent) Type of trip Bypass LUTRAQ I LUTRAQ II Home-based work trips Walk 2.5 3.5 3.5 Single-occupancy vehicle 75.1 72.7 63.9 Carpool 13.6 13.8 19.7 Transit 8.8 10.0 12.8 Total home-based Walk 4.9 5.7 5.7 Automobile 85.4 84.2 83.4 Transit 9.7 10.2 10.9 Total nonhome-based Walk 0.3 0.5 0.5 Automobile 99.0 98.8 98.8 Transit 0.7 0.8 0.8 All trips Walk 3.7 4.5 4.5 Automobile 89.0 87.6 87.0 Transit 7.3 8.0 8.6 Daily vehicle-trips per household 7.68 na 7.09 PM peak vehicle-miles 679,390 na 586,660 PM peak vehicle-hours 19,920 na 18,380 PM peak vehicle-hours delay 1,670 na 1,950 NOTE: na = not available. SOURCE: Genevieve Giuliano, “Land Use Impacts of Transportation Investments: Highway and Transit,” The Geography of Urban Transportation, Susan Hanson (ed.) (New York, NY: Guilford, 1995), ch. 13, tables 13.6 and 13.7.
Chapter 8 Transportation and Air Quality: A Metropolitan Perspective � 201 BOX 8-6 (cont’d): PORTLAND, OREGON: EXPLORING THE TRANSPORTATION/LAND-USE LINK reductions are due to vehicle inspection and maintenance programs, with emissions fees and mandatory employer trip reduction also contributing to significant reductions. 5 More extensive use of integrated transportation and land-use planning is now under review as part of a longterm plan for metropolitan Portland called “Region 2040.” As a result of a 1992 referendum, Portland’s Metro Planning Department was asked to develop a plan for accommodating growth without sacrificing the quality of life, natural areas, air quality, and water quality. As part of this process, Metro analyzed four land-use and transportation scenarios to accommodate an additional 1.1 million residents by the year 2040. The Base Case scenario represents the growth patterns that would occur if recent development patterns were to continue. It includes dispersed and segregated land-uses and major highway construction (including the Western Bypass). This scenario, however, would not be permitted under recently enacted land-use regulations. Concept A is a scenario for dispersed development—requiring a significant extension of the Urban Growth Boundary—which complies with current land-use rules. Concept B is a dense, transit-oriented growth scenario, which does not violate the current Urban Growth Boundary. It incorporates many of the same design criteria as LUTRAQ. Concept C restricts most growth to the Urban Growth Boundary, but also opens up several “satellite cities” for development. 6 Concept B 5 State Task Force on Motor Vehicles Emissions Reduction in the Portland Area, Final Report: Volume 1 Findings and Recommendations (Portland, OR: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, February 1993). 6 Metro Planning Department, Region 2040 Concepts for Growth: Report to Council (Portland, OR: June 1994). (continued) TABLE 2: COMPARISON OF REGION 2040 GROWTH CONCEPTS Category 1990 Base Case Concept A Concept B Concept C Buildable acres 53,736 154,974 104,325 65,006 78,574 Growth outside urban growth boundary (percent) – 17 29 0 37 Density (people per acre) 8.9 7.9 9.8 12.4 9.2 Single-family/multifamily (percent) 70/30 70/30 74/26 60/40 69/31 Average vmt per capita 12.4 13.04 12.48 10.86 11.92 Auto/transit/walk-bike (percent) 92/3/5 92/3/5 91/4/5 88/6/6 89/5/6 Lane-miles 5,304 6,777 6,377 5,557 6,116 Transit service hours 4,965 9,575 12,322 13,192 12,553 Congested roadway-miles (am peak) 150.5 505.6 682 642.6 403.9 Emissions (kg/day) Carbon monoxide: winter 835,115 614,451 613,537 579,579 569,091 Carbon monoxide: summer 574,708 528,601 525,133 496,017 487,188 Hydrocarbon: summer 177,857 70,700 69,810 66,375 65,745 Nitrogen oxides: summer 80,452 94,024 90,987 83,817 86,988 KEY: vmt = vehicle-miles traveled; kg/day = kilograms per day. SOURCE: Metro Planning Department, Region 2040 Concepts for Growth: Report to Council (Portland OR: June 1994), p. 88.
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Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION F
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5 THE STATE OF TRANSPORTATION STATI
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List of Figures PART I: THE STATE O
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9 AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF TR
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8 TRANSPORTATION AND AIR QUALITY: A
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well as the condition and performan
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cance of transportation is comparab
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U.S. society over the lifetime of p
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and compile statistical information
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onmental impacts focus on individua
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Angeles recorded 208 unhealthful da
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Part I The State of the Transportat
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4 � Transportation Statistics Ann
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10 � Transportation Statistics An
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To capture the rich interplay betwe
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Tables 2-1 and 2-2 present transpor
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kinds of transportation services co
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counted as products of the manufact
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worth of industrial output to final
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Measures of Transportation’s Impo
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New car Used car Gas and oil Gas ta
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Vehicle Operating Costs Vehicle pur
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Chapter 2 Transportation and the Ec
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federal funds spent on transit, rai
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The total collections from all thes
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classified under the industry in wh
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The airline industry is using fewer
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that businesses that once depended
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Millions of current dollars Annual
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C H A P T E R T H R E E TRANSPORTAT
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Risk exposure means that the more a
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fatality rate will continue to decl
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more than $14 billion in health car
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in terms of fatalities per distance
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that figure had dropped to 14 perce
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ed duty/sleep periods before their
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more seats (Title 14 Code of Federa
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Drivers who ignore warning signs ar
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The lack of accurate, comprehensive
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_____. 1996. 1995 Traffic Crashes,
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100 � Transportation Statistics A
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tion accounts for about one-ninth o
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cases the results have fallen short
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� Water Pollution The major sourc
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vehicles significantly lower the pe
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Total social cost at quantity Q' wh
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such as the Clean Air Act and Amend
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C H A P T E R S E V E N ENVIRONMENT
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CO emissions, 45 percent of all nit
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Index, 1970 = 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0
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highway vehicles emit only half the
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7-3). VOC emissions from mobile sou
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1988; before 1988, PM-10 was not di
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new CAAA regulations required a red
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that without the improvement, VOC e
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fuels are derived from natural gas
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Gallons (millions) 25 20 15 10 5 B
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Page 230 and 231: Index, 1980 = 100 A. CO emissions,
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AAMVA American Association of Motor
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ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transporta
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U.S. to Metric Length (approximate)
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A Aboveground storage tanks, xxi, 1
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C CAA. See Clean Air Act CAAA. See
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Energy efficiency combination truck
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evenues, 53-56 subsidies paid to op
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Malaysia emissions control efforts,
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energy demand projections, 95 exter
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Tires burning, 158 disposal, xxi, 1
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physical condition and performance,
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