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236 � Transportation Statistics Annual Report 1996 Number of air carriers �� 100 FIGURE A3: AIR CARRIERS SUBMITTING U.S. DOT FORM 41 REPORTS, 1971–94 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 52 50 46 43 44 45 44 43 market shares of trunk lines, 4 and the share of total traffic accounted for by the largest carriers fell from 94 percent to 77 percent between 1978 and 1985. (TRB 1991) To counter competition, major airlines used a variety of strategies that effectively raised the cost of market entry for new and smaller airlines and developed economies of scope that affected consumer choices in favor of major established airlines. (Economies of scope result when airlines offer a wider variety of services while allocating overhead costs over an increasing number of services.) The most common strategies included building extensive hub-and-spoke route systems and developing marketing programs that would increase carrier loyalty and expand carrier services, such as computer reservation systems (CRSs), frequent flyer programs, and codesharing with commuter airlines. Airlines’ efforts to mitigate some of the negative effects of deregulation were complicated by some long-term secular trends in the economy and special events occurring at the same 60 72 80 75 84 87 86 74 time. Among the latter were the 1979–80 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) petroleum price increases, which led to operating cost increases, and subsequently a fall in air transport demand. Another disruptive event was the operating constraints imposed by the air traffic controller strike in 1981. Ultimately, most new entrants, as well as some older established airlines, failed to survive in this new, highly competitive environment. Because of the shrinking number of carriers, the market shares of the three largest airline groups (majors, nationals, and large regionals) have increased. In 1994, the major, nationals, and large regional carriers accounted for 99.4 percent of total passenger traffic (see table A-2). Traffic Growth 68 66 60 62 60 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 NOTE: U.S. air carriers use Form 41 Schedules to report financial and traffic information to the U.S. Department of Transportation. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of Airline Information data. 4 A trunk line is an air carrier’s main route, usually between two major airports. The demand for airline service is income elastic and appears to be price elastic. As real income rises, passengers spend more money on air travel. Conversely, as fares rise, passengers 70 76 83
RPMs (billions) F F F F spend less on air travel. Both business and tourist travel are price elastic but the tourist market is far more so, explaining why many discount fares target tourists. Air traffic growth mirrors trends in the national economy. Figure A-4 shows the close statistical relationship between RPMs and inflation-adjusted GDP from 1979 to 1994. From 1979 to 1994, the number of enplaned passengers grew by 3.6 percent annually. Also, the trend in O&D passenger traffic continued upward, closely paralleling the growth in inflation-adjusted GDP 5 (see figure A-5). Traffic growth has not been uniform for all categories of carriers in the industry: major airlines have enjoyed substantial growth since 1979 (an 89 percent increase in enplanements); F Appendix A: An Overview of the U.S. Commercial Airline Industry � 237 FIGURE A4: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REVENUE PASSENGER-MILES AND GDP, 1979–94 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 3.5 F F F F F GDP (trillion 1987 dollars) NOTE: The estimated regression is RPM = –430.6 + .18* GDP R 2 = .98. KEY: GDP = gross domestic product; RPMs = revenue passenger-miles. F F F 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 SOURCE: Revenue passenger-miles data are from U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Office of Airline Information; GDP data are from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995 (Washington, DC: 1995). 5 The effect of the economy on airline traffic is reflected in two direct measures of traffic growth: enplaned passengers (the total number of passengers boarding aircraft for one-stop and multiple-stop flights) and O&D passengers (the number of passengers flying from an intended origin to an intended destination); both increased substantially between 1979 and 1995. O&D count is a better measure of actual passenger traffic because it eliminates double counting, which is inherent in passenger enplanement numbers. F national air carrier growth has remained flat; and the large regionals have experienced phenomenal growth—in excess of 500 percent. (USDOT OAI) Continued growth of large regional carriers is dependent, in large part, on their marketing partnerships with major airlines. Regional carriers provide service to markets that could not be economically served by major airlines operating larger aircraft. The nature of service in smaller markets that provide feed traffic to larger hubs is short-haul, nonstop service. Despite market entry limitations imposed by foreign governments, U.S. airlines experienced growth in international markets (see figure A-6). Between 1987 and 1993, the number of passengers traveling on U.S. airlines between the United States and foreign destinations increased by 47 percent, while domestic traffic increased by only 6 percent. (USGAO 1995, 2) As shown in figure A-7 and table A-3, RPMs increased sharply, by about 105 percent between 1980 and 1994. During this period, the U.S. pop- F F
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Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION F
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5 THE STATE OF TRANSPORTATION STATI
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List of Figures PART I: THE STATE O
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9 AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF TR
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8 TRANSPORTATION AND AIR QUALITY: A
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well as the condition and performan
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cance of transportation is comparab
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U.S. society over the lifetime of p
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and compile statistical information
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onmental impacts focus on individua
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Angeles recorded 208 unhealthful da
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Part I The State of the Transportat
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4 � Transportation Statistics Ann
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10 � Transportation Statistics An
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To capture the rich interplay betwe
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Tables 2-1 and 2-2 present transpor
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kinds of transportation services co
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counted as products of the manufact
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worth of industrial output to final
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Measures of Transportation’s Impo
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New car Used car Gas and oil Gas ta
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Vehicle Operating Costs Vehicle pur
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Chapter 2 Transportation and the Ec
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federal funds spent on transit, rai
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The total collections from all thes
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classified under the industry in wh
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The airline industry is using fewer
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that businesses that once depended
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Millions of current dollars Annual
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C H A P T E R T H R E E TRANSPORTAT
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Risk exposure means that the more a
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fatality rate will continue to decl
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more than $14 billion in health car
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in terms of fatalities per distance
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that figure had dropped to 14 perce
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ed duty/sleep periods before their
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more seats (Title 14 Code of Federa
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Drivers who ignore warning signs ar
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The lack of accurate, comprehensive
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_____. 1996. 1995 Traffic Crashes,
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100 � Transportation Statistics A
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tion accounts for about one-ninth o
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cases the results have fallen short
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� Water Pollution The major sourc
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vehicles significantly lower the pe
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Total social cost at quantity Q' wh
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such as the Clean Air Act and Amend
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C H A P T E R S E V E N ENVIRONMENT
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CO emissions, 45 percent of all nit
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Index, 1970 = 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0
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highway vehicles emit only half the
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7-3). VOC emissions from mobile sou
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1988; before 1988, PM-10 was not di
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new CAAA regulations required a red
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that without the improvement, VOC e
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fuels are derived from natural gas
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Gallons (millions) 25 20 15 10 5 B
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The Strategic Targeting and Respons
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EPNdB Large jet—Stage 1 (L) Large
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� Aircraft Noise Aircraft noise b
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Chapter 7 Environmental Trends and
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iron, and other metals, and greater
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Re-use Waste tire inventory Process
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� Transportation of Hazardous Mat
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Netherlands employ compensatory pro
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Billions of 1990 dollars 30 25 20 1
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Developing the information needed f
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_____. 1990. Pollutant Loadings and
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Page 230 and 231: Index, 1980 = 100 A. CO emissions,
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Page 280 and 281: AAMVA American Association of Motor
Page 282 and 283: ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transporta
Page 284 and 285: U.S. to Metric Length (approximate)
Page 286 and 287: A Aboveground storage tanks, xxi, 1
Page 288 and 289: C CAA. See Clean Air Act CAAA. See
Page 290 and 291: Energy efficiency combination truck
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Page 296 and 297: energy demand projections, 95 exter
Page 298 and 299: Tires burning, 158 disposal, xxi, 1
Page 300: physical condition and performance,
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