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8 � Transportation Statistics Annual Report 1996 Census 1995, 456) Median household income, however, remained almost constant, partly because of the decrease in household size and partly because of the changing income distribution among income groups. (In constant 1993 dollars, median household income was $30,558 in 1970 and $31,242 in 1993.) A comparison of income and car prices shows that it now takes longer for a household to earn the money needed to purchase an average-priced new car: about 26 weeks in 1993 as opposed to 19 weeks in 1969 (see chapter 2, figure 2 in box 2-1). Despite the fact that cars are now more expensive in real terms than they were 25 years ago, the number of cars per capita and the number of cars per household has grown. Growth in travel has not been evenly distributed across the country. Population in the South and West grew much faster than the Northeast and Midwest, resulting in major regional differences in transportation demand (see figure 1-2). Between 1970 and 1994, the South grew by 28 million people and the West by 22 million. By contrast, the Midwest grew by only 5 million and the Northeast by only 2 million. Moreover, a much larger percentage of the U.S. population now lives in metropolitan areas than in 1970. Metropolitan populations are, however, dispersed over wider areas than before, contributing to travel growth. (USDOT FHWA FTA MARAD 1995, 43) According to decennial census data, metropolitan areas grew from 140 million in 1970 to 189 million in 1990. 2 Between 1970 and 1990, central city areas grew from about 64 million to 72 million people, and suburbs grew from 76 million to 117 million people. Between 1980 and 1990, however, the population of central cities declined by about 500,000 while suburbs grew by 17.5 million. The suburban share of the metropolitan population was 62 percent in 1990, 2 Figures for 1990 are calculated using 1980 metropolitan area definitions and therefore differ from figures based on current U.S. census definitions. Population growth (millions) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 �� 1970–80 1980–90 �� 1990–94 �� Northeast Midwest South West FIGURE 1-2: POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 1970–94 �� SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995 (Washington, DC: 1995), table 27. up from 54 percent in 1970. The share of jobs in the suburbs also increased: 42 percent of jobs in 1990 were in the suburbs, up from 37 percent in 1980. While these factors will most likely contribute to continued growth in passenger travel in the future, the rate of growth may taper off (see summary in table 1-2). Demographic changes could affect trends in local and intercity travel. For example, the age cohort with the highest propensity to travel (ages 40 to 49) is now entirely composed of baby boomers. (USDOT FHWA 1993a, 4-11) They are likely to travel more and travel longer distances, particularly abroad (foreign travel increases with income). Long-distance travel is also likely to be affected by such things as the number of family members attending out-of-town colleges. The number of 18- to 24-year-olds, which declined from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, is expected to rise from the recent low of 24 million
Factor Comments people to 30 million people by 2010. 3 (USDOC Bureau of the Census 1995, table 24) � Patterns of Travel In 1994, 87 percent of the passenger-miles traveled in the United States were in automobiles and light trucks, including pickups, sport utility vehicles, and minivans (see figure 1-3). Much of the rest, 9 percent, was by air. (USDOT BTS 1995) In 1993, passenger travel on transit, was less than 1 percent of the total, or 36 billion passenger-miles. (USDOT FTA 1995) Highway Vehicle Travel Although passenger-miles in automobiles and light trucks increased by 80 percent over the past quarter century, the share of passenger-miles made by cars and light trucks decreased from 90 percent in 1970 to 87 percent in 1994. The cause is the great increase in air travel—from 5 percent of all passenger-miles in 1970 to 9 percent in 1994. In the category of highway travel, trav- Chapter 1 Travel, the Movement of Freight, and the Transportation System � 9 TABLE 1-2: POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTIONS TO FUTURE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND Forces of stability Population growth Slow overall growth (approximately 1 percent annually), but higher than most western European countries. Household formation Leveling off. Migration patterns Slowing of internal migration to growth areas of South and West. Employment Slower growth in the labor force. Women’s labor force participation Slower growth as it approaches that of men’s participation. Vehicle availability Reaching saturation levels. Forces of change Immigration Possibly large, with immediate impact on transportation systems. Aging Baby boomers coming into prime traveling age: large impact on long-distance domestic and international travel. Residential and job dispersal Continued dispersal will lead to more travel, particularly single-occupancy vehicles. Income Slow increases in income, but large increases in travel by the low-income population. Women’s travel Increasing travel by women, not related to having a driver’s license or labor force participation. Work-at-home/telecommuting Uncertain. 3 Projections are middle series. FIGURE 1-3: PASSENGER-MILES BY MODE, 1994 �� Amtrak and commuter rail a 0.3% Transit, a intercity bus, school bus 3.6% Passenger car, taxi, light truck, and motorcycle 86.7% a Data are for 1993. NOTE: Excludes heavy trucks. Aircraft 9.4% SOURCE: Eno Transportation Foundation and other sources cited in U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics 1996 (Washington, DC: November 1995).
Page 2 and 3: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Page 4 and 5: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION F
Page 6 and 7: 5 THE STATE OF TRANSPORTATION STATI
Page 8 and 9: List of Figures PART I: THE STATE O
Page 10 and 11: 9 AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF TR
Page 12 and 13: 8 TRANSPORTATION AND AIR QUALITY: A
Page 14 and 15: well as the condition and performan
Page 16 and 17: cance of transportation is comparab
Page 18 and 19: U.S. society over the lifetime of p
Page 20 and 21: and compile statistical information
Page 22 and 23: onmental impacts focus on individua
Page 24 and 25: Angeles recorded 208 unhealthful da
Page 26 and 27: Part I The State of the Transportat
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Page 30 and 31: 6 � Transportation Statistics Ann
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Page 58 and 59: To capture the rich interplay betwe
Page 60 and 61: Tables 2-1 and 2-2 present transpor
Page 62 and 63: kinds of transportation services co
Page 64 and 65: counted as products of the manufact
Page 66 and 67: worth of industrial output to final
Page 68 and 69: Measures of Transportation’s Impo
Page 70 and 71: New car Used car Gas and oil Gas ta
Page 72 and 73: Vehicle Operating Costs Vehicle pur
Page 74 and 75: Chapter 2 Transportation and the Ec
Page 76 and 77: federal funds spent on transit, rai
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The airline industry is using fewer
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that businesses that once depended
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Millions of current dollars Annual
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C H A P T E R T H R E E TRANSPORTAT
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Risk exposure means that the more a
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fatality rate will continue to decl
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more than $14 billion in health car
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in terms of fatalities per distance
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that figure had dropped to 14 perce
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ed duty/sleep periods before their
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more seats (Title 14 Code of Federa
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Drivers who ignore warning signs ar
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The lack of accurate, comprehensive
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_____. 1996. 1995 Traffic Crashes,
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88 � Transportation Statistics An
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100 � Transportation Statistics A
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tion accounts for about one-ninth o
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cases the results have fallen short
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� Water Pollution The major sourc
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vehicles significantly lower the pe
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Total social cost at quantity Q' wh
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such as the Clean Air Act and Amend
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C H A P T E R S E V E N ENVIRONMENT
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CO emissions, 45 percent of all nit
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Index, 1970 = 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0
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highway vehicles emit only half the
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7-3). VOC emissions from mobile sou
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1988; before 1988, PM-10 was not di
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new CAAA regulations required a red
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that without the improvement, VOC e
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fuels are derived from natural gas
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Gallons (millions) 25 20 15 10 5 B
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The Strategic Targeting and Respons
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EPNdB Large jet—Stage 1 (L) Large
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� Aircraft Noise Aircraft noise b
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Chapter 7 Environmental Trends and
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iron, and other metals, and greater
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Re-use Waste tire inventory Process
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� Transportation of Hazardous Mat
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Netherlands employ compensatory pro
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Billions of 1990 dollars 30 25 20 1
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Developing the information needed f
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_____. 1990. Pollutant Loadings and
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Index, 1980 = 100 A. CO emissions,
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Appendices
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AAMVA American Association of Motor
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ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transporta
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U.S. to Metric Length (approximate)
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A Aboveground storage tanks, xxi, 1
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C CAA. See Clean Air Act CAAA. See
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Energy efficiency combination truck
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evenues, 53-56 subsidies paid to op
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Malaysia emissions control efforts,
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energy demand projections, 95 exter
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Tires burning, 158 disposal, xxi, 1
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physical condition and performance,
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