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International Polar Year 2007–2008 - WMO

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final third element, provided in Chapter 3.3, attempts to<br />

use these results and ideas to make the case for which<br />

mix of observations to sustain into the future. The<br />

reason for attempting such a forward look is clear: if we<br />

are to develop the predictive skills and utility of climate<br />

models, we will need to observe, understand and<br />

‘build in’ a list of processes that are not yet represented<br />

realistically (or at all) in climate models. In fact, the list<br />

is quite long (Dickson et al., 2008). It is also clear that<br />

it will be the ‘legacy phase’ of IPY, sustained over years<br />

to decades, rather than the two-year project itself that<br />

will develop our understanding of these processes,<br />

their changes, their feedbacks and their likely climatic<br />

impacts to the point where they can be of practical use<br />

to climate models. We cannot continue everything;<br />

References<br />

Arrigo, KR, G. van Dijken and S. Pabi, 2008. Impact of<br />

a shrinking Arctic ice/cover on marine primary<br />

production. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19603,<br />

doi:10.1029/ 2008GL035028,2008<br />

Barber, D. G., M. Asplin, Y. Gratton, J. Lukovich, R. Galley,<br />

R. Raddatz and D. Leitch, 2010. The <strong>International</strong><br />

<strong>Polar</strong> <strong>Year</strong> (IPY) Circumpolar Flaw Lead (CFL)<br />

System Study: Introduction and Physical System.<br />

Atmosphere-Ocean 48 (4): 225 243. doi:10.3137/<br />

OC317.2010<br />

Beaugrand, G., P.C. Reid, F. Ibanex, J.A. Lindley and M.<br />

Edwards, 2002. Reorganisation of North Atlantic<br />

MarineCopepod Biodiversity and Climate. Science,<br />

296:1692-1694.<br />

Berge, J., F. Cottier, K. Last, Ø. Varpe, E. Leu, J. Søreide,<br />

K. Eiane, S. Falk-Petersen, K. J Willis, H. Nygård, D.<br />

Vogedes, C. Griffiths, G. Johnsen, D. Lorentze and<br />

A. S Brierley, 2008. Diel vertical migration of Arctic<br />

zooplankton during the polar night. Biology Letters,<br />

published online, October 23, doi:10.1098/<br />

rsbl.2008.0484.<br />

Carmack, E. and F. McLaughlin, 2001. Arctic Ocean<br />

change and consequences to biodiversity: A per-<br />

even if we could, it would surely be ineffectual simply<br />

to continue to observe the Arctic according to what we<br />

thought we knew before IPY. What have we learned in<br />

IPY that might help us design its observational ‘legacy<br />

phase’? At the Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW) in<br />

Bergen in March 2009, the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board<br />

(AOSB) set itself the task of developing a proposal for<br />

an integrated, sustained and pan-Arctic observing<br />

effort focused on the role of northern seas in climate<br />

in Oslo in 2010. To achieve maximum focus, this plan is<br />

being structured around the following three questions:<br />

1) Following IPY, how would we now define the role of the<br />

Northern Seas in Climate? 2) What questions should we be<br />

testing to help us understand that role? 3) How should we<br />

design an ocean observing system to test these questions?<br />

spective on linkage and scale. Mem. Natl. <strong>Polar</strong>.<br />

Res., Spec Issue. 54:365-375.<br />

Carmack, E. and D. C. Chapman, 2003. Wind-driven<br />

shelf/basin exchange on an Arctic shelf: The<br />

joint roles of ice cover extent and shelf-break<br />

bathymetry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(14):1778,<br />

doi:10.1029/2003GL017526.<br />

Carmack, E., R.W. Macdonald and S. Jasper, 2004. Phytoplankton<br />

productivity on the Canadian Shelf of<br />

the Beaufort Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series,<br />

277:37-50.<br />

Cottier, F. R., F. Nilsen, M.E. Inall, S. Gerland, V. Tverberg<br />

and H. Svendsen, 2007. Wintertime warming of an<br />

Arctic shelf in response to large-scale atmospheric<br />

circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 34,<br />

doi:10.1029/2007GL029948.<br />

de Steur L, E. Hansen, R. Gerdes, M. Karcher, E. Fahrbach<br />

and J. Holfort, 2009. Freshwater fluxes in the East<br />

Greenland Current: a decade of observations. Geophys.<br />

Res. Lett. 36, doi: 10.1029:2009gl041278.<br />

Dickson, R.R., 2006. The integrated Arctic Ocean Observing<br />

System (iAOOS): an AOSB-CliC Observing<br />

Plan for the <strong>International</strong> <strong>Polar</strong> <strong>Year</strong>. Oceanologia<br />

s C I e n C e P r o g r a m 183

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